India likely to have below-average monsoon in 2014

India is likely to have a below-average monsoon rainfall in 2014, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first monsoon forecast on Thursday.

According to the forecast, the drop in rainfall expectations could result in drought and increase inflation.

The IMD forecast predicts patchy rain, which could affect the planting of crops such as soybeans, rice, corn and cotton. Below-average monsoons could also have a negative impact on production of sugar, edible oil and pulses.

Agriculture accounts for 14 per cent of the Indian economy. The IMD forecast is in line with the outlook of the World Meteorological Organisation that predicted mostly below-average rains in much of South Asia, including India.

Below-average rains in the June-September monsoon season may create a headache for the new government, expected to be formed after results of the general election are announced on May 16.

The last time India faced a drought with rainfall below the normal range was in 2009. It faced similar situations in 2004 and 2002. India defines average rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire season.