GDP growth at 7.3% in Q3FY16, forecast revised upwards to 7.6% for FY16

FY2016 GDP growth forecast revised up from 7.1-7.5% range earlier

As per the data on national accounts released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at slower pace of 7.3% in Q3FY2016 compared with 7.7% growth recorded in the previous quarter Q2FY2016. However, the growth is showing acceleration from 6.6% growth recorded in the corresponding quarter last year (Q3FY2015). Meanwhile, the CSO has revised its full year GDP growth estimate for FY2016 to 7.6% from 7.1-7.5% range earlier.

The CSO has also revised upwards the Q1FY16 GDP growth to 7.6% from 7% estimated earlier, while Q2FY16 GDP growth has been also revised upwards to 7.7% from 7.4% earlier.

For FY2016, the sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0% are 'financial, real estate and professional services', 'trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting', and manufacturing'. The growth in the 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying', 'electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services', 'construction' and 'public administration, defence and other services' is estimated to be 1.1%, 6.9%, 5.9%, 3.7% and 6.9% respectively.

In Q3FY2016, Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: 'agriculture, forestry and fishing' (-1.0%), 'mining and quarrying' (6.5%), 'manufacturing' (12.6%), 'electricity, gas and water supply and other utility services' (6.0%) 'construction' (4.0%), trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting ' (10.1%), 'financial, real estate and professional services ' (9.9%), and Public administration, defence and Other Services' (7.5%).

Based on the advances estimates of GDP for FY2016 and the first three quarters of actual GDP data indicates that the GDP growth should be at 7.7% in Q4FY2016 for arriving at the forecast growth of 7.6% for FY2016.

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