Impact of Demonetisation and GST on key Industrial Sectors

The growth of different sectors of an economy depends on a number of factors, including structural, external, fiscal and monetary factors (which is partly reflected by demonetisation). Therefore, it is not possible to pinpoint the impact of demonetization and GST on sectoral outputs.

India's Import and Export data (month-wise) for the Financial Years 2016-17 and 2017-18 along with growth rate is as under:

Month Value of Import (in US $ Million) Growth Rate (in %)2017-18 2016-17April 38209 25689 48.73May 38317 28286 35.46June 36983 30917 19.62July 33986 29305 15.97August 35561 29303 21.36September 37628 31839 18.18October 37117 34495 7.60TOTAL 257800 209835 22.86

Month Value of Export (in US $ Million) Growth Rate (in %)2017-18 2016-17April 24592 20863 17.87May 23969 22407 6.97June 23108 22656 2.00July 22382 21692 3.18August 23517 21597 8.89September 28732 22768 26.19October 23050 23361 -1.33TOTAL 169349 155344 9.02

Note: Figures pertaining to the current Financial Year 2017-18 are provisional.

Source: DGCI&S

The percentage growth of gross value added at constant basic prices for manufacturing and construction sectors of the economy up to second quarter (Q2) of 2017-18 compared to the corresponding period in the previous year are given in the table below.

Sectors 2015-16 2016-17 2016-17 2017-18Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Manufacturing 10.8 7.9 10.7 7.7 8.2 5.3 1.2 7.0 Construction 5.0 1.7 3.1 4.3 3.4 -3.7 2.0 2.6

Note: As per estimates released by Central Statistics Office

Details of revenue generated from central excise & customs duty during the last 12 months is as under:

Sl. No.

Month

Central Excise
(in Rs. Crore) Customs Duty [On Export/ Import]
(in Rs. Crore)1

December, 2016

33159 188202

January, 2017

34089 189743

February, 2017

31927 187974

March, 2017

35386 216655

April, 2017

31817 207646

May, 2017

34150 220517

June, 2017

25007 211478

*July, 2017

21150 303279

*August, 2017

18960 3153510

*September, 2017

18191 3121711

*October, 2017

17367 2953612

*November, 2017

18127 28631

Note: * w.e.f 1st July, 2017 the CVD/SAD on Imports, Non-Petroleum component of Central Excise duty and complete Service Tax have been subsumed under GST. The Customs duty on Imports from July - November, 2017 are inclusive of IGST and GST Compensation Cess.

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