Ficci survey estimates GDP growth this fiscal at 7.7 percent

Industry chamber Ficci on Monday said its latest opinion survey of economists has forecast India's GDP to grow 7.7 percent in the financial year ending March 31, 2017.

"The results of latest round of Ficci's Economic Outlook Survey puts across a median GDP growth forecast of 7.7 percent for the fiscal year 2016-17," said a statement issued by Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) here.

"The growth in 2016-17 is expected to be supported by an improvement in the agricultural and industrial sector performance. Prediction of a good monsoon after two consecutive years of sub-optimal rainfall backs the improved outlook in the current fiscal," it said.

The survey was conducted during April-May 2016 among economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sectors, the statement said.

The Ficci estmates come a day ahead of the release of India's national income figures for 2015-16, as well as of the gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter that ended in March, compiled by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) here.

US rating agency Fitch in its latest global economic outlook said that India's GDP would grow at 7.5 percent in the financial year ended March, and improve to 7.7 percent in 2016-17 and further to 7.9 percent in 2017-18.

According to the Ficci survey, agriculture is expected to record an average growth of 2.8 percent in the current fiscal. The industrial sector is anticipated to grow by 7.1 percent in 2016-17, while services sector growth is estimated at 9.6 percent.

"A majority of the participating economists believe that the fiscal deficit target of 3.5 percent for the year 2016-17 seems achievable," said the Ficci statement.

"It was mentioned (by majority of the economists) that the economy will have to achieve a GDP growth rate between seven and 7.75 percent this fiscal to be able to garner the requisite amount of revenue receipts," it added.

The union finance ministry's Economic Survey tabled in parliament in February pegged growth for the fiscal in the 7-7.5 percent range.

"Risk could arise from an increase in global crude oil prices and this could possibly change the projected trajectory of fiscal deficit this year," the Ficci statement said.

"A majority of the economists were of the view that investment cycle will take at least two more quarters to witness a pickup," it added.

The country's GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015-16 slowed to a four-quarter low at 7.3 percent, as against the 7.7 percent it had grown at in the second quarter.

--IANS

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