Global cues, quarterly results to guide equity indices (Market Outlook)

Global cues such as volatile crude oil prices, along with the policy stance of major global central banks and the ongoing quarterly results season are expected to guide the Indian equity market's trajectory next week.

According to market observers, April derivatives expiry coupled with the direction of foreign fund flows and rupee's movement against the US dollar will also be closely tracked by investors.

"Global tailwinds would keep the markets range-bound next week, especially the crude oil prices," Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

"The ECB (European Central Bank) and BOJ (Bank of Japan) policy statements are due in the next week. The local bond yields and rupee levels (RBI's response) would be closely watched after the hawkish RBI (Reserve Bank of INdia) minutes."

Apart from global cues, companies like Bharti Infratel, Reliance Infrastructure, Bharti Airtel, Jindal Stainless, UltraTech Cement, Wipro, Axis Bank, Biocon, Rallis India, Yes Bank and Maruti Suzuki India are expected to announce their fourth quarter (Q4) earning results in the coming week.

"Better earnings, improved sentiment and weaker INR (Indian rupee) would help the IT sector stocks. Earnings releases of Axis, Yes and HDFC banks would be monitored closely to assess the trends of incremental NPAs (non-performing assets) recognition in private banks," Nevgi said.

According to D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director of SMC Investments & Advisors: "Stock-specific action will continue to impact sentiment."

"Next week it is expected that the Nifty will move in the range of 10,400-10,650 points levels and Bank Nifty will move in the range of 24,500 to 25,000."

Besides, the rupee's movement will be another crucial factor in the equity trade segment. The Indian rupee had weakened by 92 paise to close at 66.13 against the US dollar for the week ended April 20.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors sold scrip worth Rs 2,821.24 crore, while the domestic institutional investors purchased stocks worth Rs 2,124.16 crore during last week.

Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed that foreign portfolio investors divested equities worth Rs 3,096.62 crore, or $471.78 million, during April 16-20.

On technical levels, the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty50 remains in an uptrend.

"The Nifty remains in an uptrend and further upsides are likely once the immediate resistance of 10,632 points is taken out," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

"Crucial supports to watch for any weakness is at 10,395 points."

Last week, forecast of normal monsoon rains, along with healthy earnings in the IT sector, had lifted the Indian equity markets.

Consequently, the barometer 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) rose by 222.93 points or 0.65 per cent to close at 34,415.58 points.

Similarly, the wider NSE Nifty50 made gains. It closed trade at 10,564.05 points -- up 83.45 points or 0.80 per cent from its previous week's close.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

--IANS

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