Rupee movement, F&O expiry to drive equity market next week (Market Outlook)

The domestic equity market's movement in the coming week will be driven by the rupee's movementas well as futures and options expiry, besides the message from the Finance Minister's meeting with the heads of public sector banks (PSBs).

Market analysts feel the indices could offer some relief in the upcoming week, after largely bearish trade last week.

Movement in the rupee would be a factor in the market, they said. On Tuesday, the Indian rupee touched a new low of 72.91 per US dollar, although it recovered somewhat later.

Concerns over the US-China trade war would also impact the global and domestic market sentiments. On Friday, China cancelled talks with the US after the latter imposed more tariffs on Chinese imports.

According to reports, a White House official has said the US is optimistic about finding a way forward in the ongoing trade dispute with China.

"Global headwinds are also subsiding slowly. Hence, the market may shake off its earlier losses to witness new highs," said Prateek Jain, Director of Hem Securities.

He, however, added: "Amidst the global optimism, the market could witness a little volatility as traders adjust their positions on account of monthly derivatives expiry, which is scheduled to take place on Thursday, September 27.

"Further, there will be some buzz from the banking sector, as investors will keep an eye on the meeting of the Finance Ministry and top management of the public sector banks on September 25."

Technically, for the Nifty50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), 11,050 points would be a major support level while immediate resistance level would be 11,250 points, said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research at HDFC Securities.

In the week gone by, the Indian equity market slumped over three per cent due to a depreciating rupee along with high oil and credit risk concerns.

On a weekly basis, the Sensex of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) closed at 36,841.60 points, lower by 1,249.04 points or 3.28 per cent from the previous week.

Similarly, the wider Nifty50 on Friday closed at 11,143.10 points, down 372.1 points or 3.23 per cent from the previous week's close.

In terms of investments, provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold scrips worth Rs 2,674.12 crore, while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 1,782.63 crore worth of stocks in the truncated week.

According to National Securities Depository (NSDL) figures, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) divested Rs 2,231.37 crore, or $306.04 million, in the equities segment during the week ended September 21.

On the currency front, the Indian rupee closed at 72.20 a US dollar on Friday, depreciating 35 paise from the previous week's close of 71.85.

(Rituraj Baruaah can be contacted at rituraj.b@ians.in)

--IANS

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