Trading likely to remain choppy in Indian stock markets (Weekly Outlook)

Volatility in Indian stock markets is expected to continue during the sessions ahead, after two weeks of bearish trends, with some fresh directions also expected from the release of domestic macro data, notably the GDP numbers, analysts said.

During the past week, the sensitive index (Sensex) of the BSE shed 294.75 points or 1.05 per cent, at 27,782.25 points. This came over and above the drop of 75.40 points or 0.27 per cent during the week before at 28,077 points.

As regards the other key index, the 51-share Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the fall was 94.35 points or 1.09 per cent at 8,572.55 points during the past week, and 5.25 points or 0.06 per cent at 8,666.90 points during the week before.

Figures from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) showed that foreign portfolio investors were net sellers of equities worth Rs 626.63 crore, or $92.89 million from August 22-26.

Trading during the past week also came after Urjt Patel was named as the next Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. This apart, investors were awaiting for the crucial signals from the speech of US Federal Reserve Chief Janet Yellen at an annuam meeting at Jackson Hole in Wyoming. Further, volatility was induced by the expiry of futures and options contracts.

"The appointment of Urjit Patel as the successor of Raghuram Rajan was in general perceived to be a good move by the government, but it also raised market concerns that the hawkish RBI stance on interest rates will continue," said Pankaj Sharma, Head of Equities, Equirus Securities.

"The markets, along with the global counterparts, came off during the week as investors waited for the Yellen speech to sense whether and when US Fed will like to hike the interest rates," added D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments and Advisors.

But opinions were divided on the impact of Yellen's speech -- a positive one for the US -- on Indian markets.

"In her speech, Yellen highlighted that the US economy is in a better shape, there is a good pick-up in demand and there is a good case for increasing the rates now," said Sharma of Equirus Securities.

"Of course, there is no clarity on the exact timelines but it looks likely that unless the economic data deteriorates significantly in coming months, there is a good chance that we will see a rate hike by US Fed this year," he said, adding that this will influence the markets.

Vijay Singhania, Founder-Director of Trade Smart Online, had a different take.

"Indian markets are expected to see a positive opening (On Monday) as the chances of a Fed Rate hike in September is off the table. Lack of surprises in Yellen's remarks is completely in line with most expectations and the key takeaway that is 'nothing's changed'," he said.

Dhruv Desai, Director and Chief Operating Officer of Tradebulls, said some other developments will also have an influence on Indian markets in the coming week.

"Investors will closely follow the important cues in the next week -- and these will be inflow of funds from foreign institutional investors into Indian equity markets, the government's fiscal deficit ituation and the release of quarterly GDP data."

--IANS

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