A Russian reckoning

Ukraine scores unexpected military successes

The 200th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has offered a moment of reckoning for President Vladimir Putin’s ill-judged revanchist project. For hard-pressed Ukrainians this grim anniversary offers crucial consolation in terms of a rapid advance of its military in the Kharkiv region in the north-east and the unexpectedly precipitous flight of Russian formations, abandoning all manner of defence equipment, including tanks and rocket launchers. Having recaptured the strategic town of Izyum, which was once a critical jumping-off point for the Russian military, Ukraine’s lightning counter-offensive has brought its forces to less than 50 km from the Russian border. All told, in September, Ukrainian forces claim to have recovered 3,000 square km of lost territory, a fact that has been corroborated by the Russian defence ministry’s publication of a map on Sunday that showed most of its forces were out of Kharkiv.

The Ukrainian force’s advance represents a continuum of its counter-offensive operations that prevented Russian troops from occupying capital Kyiv in March. It also underlines the under-planned and –resourced nature of Russia’s invasion that was on display from the first day of its offensive on February 24. For Ukrainian commanders, the major challenge now lies in planning the subsequent advance cautiously to prevent encirclement. Russia still has a major military presence along the east and south-east, though pockets of Ukrainian counter-offensives along this border plus partisan warfare around the strategic town of Melitopol could be pinning down enemy forces. Still, with a force that is much smaller in terms of personnel and initially out-resourced in terms of military hardware, and short of fuel and food, Kyiv’s staying power has been impressive. Much will be made of the fact that Ukraine’s ability to prevent the Russians overrunning the country has been courtesy the finance and wide range of weaponry from the US and Nato that has proven consistently superior to Russian hardware.

But in geopolitical terms, Moscow appears to have made two critical miscalculations. The first is that European dependence on Russian gas would force it to persuade Kyiv to the negotiating table. Although there are big question marks over Europe’s resilience as the winter approaches, with Russia cutting off supplies from a critical pipeline, the EU has proven pro-active in exploring and operationalising alternative sources. Remarkably, too, public opinion in Europe is still to turn in Russia’s favour. The second critical miscalculation has been the assumption that Kyiv would not be able to hold the line long enough for Western weaponry to enter the war zone. But the fact is that the Ukrainian military has been equipped and trained by the US since Russia’s conquest of the Crimea and the Donetsk basin in 2014, which stood it in good stead during this unprovoked invasion. Since then, 30 countries have sent large amounts of military equipment, including long-range rockets, howitzers, anti-tank weapons, and drones. All of these appear to have outperformed Russian weaponry by leagues, a fact that certainly raises questions about the wisdom of India’s continued dependence on Russian materiel. Considering Russia occupies about a fifth of Ukrainian territory and enjoys robust support in the eastern “self-proclaimed republics”, Kyiv’s challenges are nowhere near over. Ukrainian ground commanders see the war stretching into 2023, suggesting hard times ahead for the global economy.