A troubled achievement

Taliban threats hang over Pakistan's historic elections

Sometimes the quality of a thing can be judged by those who oppose it. For Pakistani democracy, the enemy of the moment is the Pakistani Taliban, especially the faction led by Hakimullah Mehsud, who wrote in an open letter dated May 1 that "we don't accept the system of infidels that is called democracy". He outlined plans for suicide attacks on Saturday's polling, no doubt in an attempt to force voters to stay home. This is a ploy familiar to Indians who have seen similar attempts by separatists in Kashmir. That isn't to say the Taliban haven't already exacted a price from the election process: over 100 people have been killed since last month in various attacks that the Taliban have carried out on political rallies and on specific candidates. The latest victim was former prime minister Yousaf Raza Gilani's son, who was reportedly kidnapped on Thursday. Some of his associates were killed. The attacks have focused on parties that comprise the current ruling coalition - the Pakistan Peoples Party, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (the progressive Karachi-based party of migrants from India) and the Awami National Party (based out of the former Northwest Frontier). These parties are, of course, markedly more secular than the pro-military Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, of ex-cricketer Imran Khan and the front runner, right-of-centre Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML (N), of ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

The incumbent government has suffered, much as India's has, from corruption scandals and a popular perception of incompetence. By contrast, the PML(N)'s government in Punjab province, its stronghold, is seen as having been efficient and forward-looking. Several dramatic infrastructure projects have helped cement that impression. Most observers believe that the PML(N) will emerge as the largest party following elections. The race for the second spot will be between the PPP, largely discredited by its government but still strong in its heartland of rural Sindh, and the PTI. The PTI has been in existence for over a decade, but it is only now - critics say thanks to extensive support from the Pakistani establishment - that it has begun to achieve traction electorally. Imran Khan's strident anti-American line, shunned by the more responsible mainstream parties, has touched a populist chord. In socially conservative parts of southern Punjab, and in the former Northwest Frontier, Mr Khan's party is expected to do well. But it is not known how well, nor how much its success will come at the expense of Mr Sharif's party.

Either way, the PPP's leader Asif Ali Zardari may well stay on in Islamabad's presidential residence for some months yet, since the presidency is not filled through these direct elections. The government that Mr Zardari has steered over the past five years may not have been the best that Pakistan could aspire to. Under it growth limped along at three per cent, the fiscal deficit hit a two-decade high, and the country endured 18-hour power cuts. But it survived its entire five-year term, and looks set to hand over power peacefully following an election that is threatened - but is, in its unsurprisingly noisy way, a testament to the political freedoms that Pakistanis are beginning to take for granted.