An alliance thrown off the scent

It is the classic closing-the-stable-door-after-the-horse-has-bolted action. The Congress, after expending much blood, sweat, and tears in putting together the “mahajot” in Assam, has itself dissolved the alliance.

To go back: The 10-party mahajot, led by the Congress, was formed ahead of this year’s Assembly elections in the state. Besides the Congress, All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and Bodo People’s Front (BPF), it comprised the Left parties, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), and a host of smaller groups.

On the face of it, the mahajot was meant to prevent the division of votes, and, to some extent, it did. The alliance won 50 seats in the Assembly polls with the Congress securing 29 seats, the AIUDF 16, the BPF four, and the CPI(M) one. The Congress’ tally increased to 29 from 26 in 2016. But party insiders bitterly resented the alliance with the AIUDF, led by Badru­ddin Ajmal. Not only did the party report a miserable performance in eastern and North Assam (Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Jorhat, Sibasagar, Golaghat, Lakhimpur Golaghat, Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Majuli, Biswanath and Sonitpur districts), the Congress’ vote share went down from 30.96 per cent in 2016 to 29.7 per cent in 2021.

Sushmita Dev, one of the party’s most prominent leaders from the state, quit to join the Trinamool Congress. She felt that her prospects were hurt by the alliance with the AIUDF (which increased its tally from 13 in 2016 to 16 in 2021). And after she quit the party, the Congress announced it was leaving the alliance. Does that sound strange?

And what happens now?

The Congress has cited the “mysterious praise” by Badruddin Ajmal and the AIUDF of the BJP and Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as the reason for snapping the alliance. This is exactly what the BJP wants — a fissure in the Muslim vote that will keep the opposition divided. In June this year, the Ajmal Foundation and Ajmal Perfumes (two of Badruddin Ajmal’s business initiatives) donated nearly Rs 1 crore to the chief minister’s vaccination relief fund.

In July, Sirajuddin Ajmal, MLA and Badruddin Ajmal’s younger brother, said Assam would progress under Himanta Biswa Sarma. “Why would I mind if somebody is doing something good,” he told local reporters. “Our Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is doing really well. He has taken up some really good initiatives and schemes … You just see! Assam will progress under his governance.” He added for good measure that the previous chief minister, Sarbananda Sonowal “lacked common sense”.

Barely six months ago, during the Assembly election campaign, Mr Biswa Sarma and other arms of the BJP had rained fire and fury on the AIUDF, describing them as anti-national, secessionist, and worse. After the results were declared, there hasn’t been a peep out of the BJP.

One reason for this could be the upcoming Assembly byelections. At least three byelections are due in the Assembly: Two because of the defection of Congress MLAs to the BJP, and one because of the resignation of an AIUDF MLA. Former chief minister and MLA Sarbananda Sonowal will also likely resign, having become a minister in the Central government. These elections are a test case for new alignments.

Mr Biswa Sarma, who is known to have little time for diplomatic niceties in politics, has told all opposition leaders the BJP’s door is open for them. “What will you do in the opposition for five years?” he has said. An indignant Congress has charged the chief minister with wanting to engineer defections. From all accounts, the chief minister won’t have to work very hard to do so.

In the coming months, with new political alignments taking shape, Assam is set to see basic political equations change. Within the BJP, Mr Sonowal might find that there is hardly any space left for him in his home state. With the AIUDF’s ringing endorsement, Mr Biswa Sarma might have to adopt a more consultative position on the migrant issue, maybe even play it down. Within the Congress, with the exit of Sushmita Dev, Kaliabor MP Gaurav Gogoi will likely become much more assertive. The entry of the Trinamool in Assam as a serious player will have to be watched carefully. There is bound to be a new turn in Muslim politics as well.

Most of all, the talents of one of India’s undoubtedly most versatile politicians, Himanta Biswa Sarma, will be on display. He is rapidly earning a reputation for himself as manager in chief when it comes to contradictions.