Anand Kumar: Options beyond uninterrupted talks

One of them would be a well thought out plan that tells Pakistan that its proxy war would no longer be tolerated

There was high drama in the national media over the last 24 hours. The Director General of Military Operations, Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh, said the Indian Army had conducted surgical strikes the previous night on terror launch pads across the Line of Control. The Pakistani army accused India of “fabrication of truth”. In all this, one thing is clear: India seems to be desperately searching for an option to adequately respond to Pakistan in the aftermath of the attack on the security forces in Uri in Jammu and Kashmir by the Pakistani-sponsored terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammad. However, this was not the first attack of its kind. There have been similar provocations in the past — the last one being the attack in Pathankot on an Indian air base in which a number of soldiers were killed, though material damage to the airbase was somewhat less. This time, the search for options against Pakistan is intense because the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is in power now, has been talking of “tough actions” against Pakistan to prevent the recurrence of such incidents. The real options, however, still seem elusive.

It’s interesting to note that Pakistan has remained an enigma for the Indian foreign policy establishment despite being considered one of the main security concerns for the last 70 years. Some may argue that China is the number one security threat but few would dispute that Pakistan comes at least second on that list. This situation only exacerbates the whole problem.

India has to realise that it is faced with a rogue state in its neighbourhood. What is worse, this rogue state considers India its existential threat.

If Pakistan considers India its existential threat, then there is no point talking to it. It will not lead to a solution to any of the bilateral problems, and this is what has been happening. Pakistan uses issues such as Kashmir to rationalise its hostile behaviour. Kashmir became an issue simply because the Indian state has not handled it properly. On the other hand, countries such as China successfully turned critical issues like Tibet into a non-issue. Even Pakistan plans to incorporate Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK) by going for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). On the other hand, Pakistan has managed to keep the pot boiling in the Kashmir Valley to bring undue international attention. India does not seem to have a plan to deal with this turmoil in Kashmir.

It is suggested that the Pakistan Army does not want amicable relations between the two countries. If relations between the two countries become normal, how would it justify its existence and the massive resources it corners?

In Pakistan, the army plays a key role in all important foreign policy issues, including its policy towards India. It’s hardly surprising that this policy is full of hostility.

The way the Pakistani state is structured at present and the way it functions, it is almost impossible to expect any responsible behaviour from it. The presence of nuclear weapons in the hand of this state has further complicated the whole situation.

In the past, it has been suggested by some that if India responds militarily then it would be walking into the trap laid by Pakistan. The fear of war escalating into nuclear conflict is also cited. But then it would mean that India should prepare to take terror blows from Pakistan at regular intervals. This would be a policy of pusillanimity.

A section in India has argued that it should do much more to its neighbours without expecting any reciprocation. Possibly following this policy India gave one-way Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan. Unfortunately, Pakistan has taken it as India’s desperation to buy peace with that country. In Pakistan, debate still goes about how it can accord MFN status to India which is its “most preferred enemy state”.

India, on the other hand, has still not decided whether Pakistan is an enemy state or not. In fact, one of the Indian prime ministers is known to have dismantled or at least weakened the covert capability of the country against Pakistan. It’s quite clear that the country has no consistent policy towards Pakistan. We look for options when attacked but start yearning for peace after a few days. But it seems Pakistan has decided it will not let us live in peace.

It is true that no knee-jerk reaction is warranted in the aftermath of the Uri attack, but definitely a well thought out reaction is needed to tell Pakistan that its proxy war would no longer be tolerated. Quite ironically the Rafale agreement that had been hanging fire for 16 years was finalised after the Uri attack. Similarly, this attack should also act as a trigger to expedite Narendra Modi’s Make in India programme in modern weapon systems.

It has been argued that India is no Israel or the US to take action in such cases. However, what is important here is to note the fact that both these countries are able to act against their adversaries because they enjoy overwhelming military superiority. Hence, now onwards India should also work to create this overwhelming conventional military superiority vis-à-vis Pakistan, if not China. There is need for India to strengthen all the three wings of its armed forces. Only this will deter Pakistan from its regular terror incursions and not the so-called diplomatic isolation. Diplomacy often gives only legal cover to military actions and this is where India needs to improve its capability.

The much talked about manipulation of the Indus Waters Treaty also seems not an option at the moment in the absence of suitable infrastructure to control the water flow. However, this is also one area where India can start doing the needful so that it can tighten the screw as and when required.

India should also be ready with a post-Pakistan strategy in case this happens either because of the domestic situation in that country or because of a war. It’s foolish to think that a long-standing problem like Pakistan would have a quick-fix just because a BJP-led government is in power. India will have to create overwhelming asymmetry in conventional power, use the Indus Waters Treaty as a pressure point and keep a post-Pakistan plan ready for effective solution of the  Pakistan engendered security problem. It may take some time, but the Indian government should start working towards it and there should be a consensus on this issue across the political divide. It should not necessarily be the agenda of any one political party.

The author is associate fellow, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses