Behind the grumbling

Transition pangs or posturing for post-poll scenarios?

In the Ahmedabad (East) Lok Sabha constituency, the Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP's) Harin Pathak - who has represented the area in Parliament for seven terms now - was denied his party's nomination. He said in a press conference that he was "deeply hurt", and that those who had spent years criticising the BJP and its parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, had got tickets while he hadn't. Meanwhile, in Barmer, former Union minister Jaswant Singh filed his nomination from his home constituency, although the BJP had refused to grant him the seat. He said he was not "furniture" to be "adjusted". And, of course, the party's former president, Lal Krishna Advani, expressed public disapproval of being asked to contest from his old seat of Gandhinagar instead of being moved to Bhopal, as he preferred.

In the BJP, Sushma Swaraj, the leader of the Opposition in the outgoing Lok Sabha, has said that she is hurt by the decision about Mr Singh. Other murmurs of discontent have also been heard. There are several lenses through which these developments could be interpreted. The BJP's leadership has been confident of an easy time constructing a coalition after the election's results have been declared. However, there may not be such certainty in private. From that point of view, these problems are a reflection of the power struggle and posturing for possible post-poll scenarios. Prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi and party president Rajnath Singh are trying to establish their supreme authority, so that the post-poll alignments are under their control; others wish to have more flexibility. It could also be the pangs associated with the transfer of control between an old guard and the new - more than just a generational shift, a change between those who have represented the party in Delhi for years and the new set of men empowered by Mr Modi.

Some of the replacements for old, well-known faces - such as Paresh Rawal, the actor who will contest in Mr Pathak's Ahmedabad (East) - could well also serve as the nucleus for a new set of courtiers in the next regime, if all goes well for Mr Modi. This, too, would disturb the party establishment. It should always have been clear to them that Mr Modi would brook no control. However, to see the shifts happening so soon and so sharply might well cause considerable nervousness. There are risks, however, for the BJP. High-profile snubs, such as those to Mr Advani and Mr Singh, contain a certain danger: in the many constituencies where there is less noticed grumbling about the BJP's selection of nominees, such snubs might serve as an amplification and a focus for existing grievances. In a reflection of Mr Pathak's complaint, in many places existing parliamentarians or leaders of other parties have been given BJP tickets at short notice. Jagdambika Pal was renominated by the BJP for his seat in Uttar Pradesh within hours of leaving the Congress. In Madhya Pradesh, Uday Pratap Singh defected from the Congress 10 days before the Assembly elections late last year, and has been renominated by the BJP. Bhagirath Prasad, who was nominated by the Congress from Bhind earlier this month, switched allegiance to the BJP the very next day. Disagreement at a higher level may serve to enhance the grass-roots discontent caused by such moves.