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Boeing can weather the loss of US Ex-Im Bank

Boeing should be able to weather the loss of the US Export-Import Bank. The agency helped finance about 18 percent of the aerospace giant's deliveries last year, or roughly $8 billion worth of planes. If Congress fails to renew the lender's charter before October, however, Boeing might have to extend more credit to maintain sales. That could cloud the company's performance but shouldn't ruin the overall forecast.

There's plenty of room to maneuver. Aircraft purchasers typically don't line up financing until just before delivery, which can be years after an order is placed. Boeing's current manufacturing backlog is about eight years. That would leave affected customers plenty of time to arrange alternate funding if the Ex-Im Bank disappeared tomorrow.

Competitive concerns could eventually crop up, though. European consortium Airbus and other foreign rivals would gain a significant advantage in luring new business, assuming their buyers continued to avail themselves of government loan guarantees.

Boeing could mitigate the damage by financing purchasers itself. That would roughly triple the company's $3.5 billion loan portfolio, though, assuming Boeing provided all the credit now covered by the export bank, according to Standard & Poor's. It would also substantially increase risk, given that many purchasers use export financing because they lack the financial vigor to borrow in the open market.

Boeing might still avoid trouble, at least until the industry's next economic downturn pushed more customers out of traditional debt markets. Potential defaults might force the company to increase capital reserves, leaving less money for the research and development necessary to stay ahead of upstart rivals in emerging markets.

None of these challenges is insurmountable. But Boeing's shares are trading at 16 times forward earnings, a premium over Airbus stock's level of 14 times earnings. That means investors may still be discounting the risks.

There's a good chance Congress will step in and preserve the Ex-Im Bank. And even if it doesn't, Boeing has the financial wherewithal to deal with a little turbulence. Investors counting on a smooth ascent in share price, however, may want to fasten their seatbelts.