For BJP, it's time to bite the bullet

The BJP faces uphill battles as Modi's charm starts to wear off, particularly in states where it is already weak

Before boarding the Amritsar-Howrah train, I had two questions in mind. First, what do people of India, especially those in the hinterland, think of the performance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government during its first year in office? And second, what might the future hold for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming state elections of Bihar (October 2015), West Bengal (2016), Punjab (2017) and Uttar Pradesh (2017)?

I had travelled on this train route last year to gauge the pulse of the nation. That was before the general elections in April-May 2014. After finishing my latest journey, I realised how different it was from the previous ride.

During my first visit, people would latch on to the mere mention of elections or Modi. This time, despite repeated attempts, people showed no enthusiasm talking about Modi’s government, which they had given an overwhelming support a year ago. Many a time, I had to provoke them by asking whether “achchhe din aa gaye? (were the good days already there?), to excite political conversation.

In Punjab, from where I boarded the train, I noticed people were more upset. They seemed almost convinced they wanted to uproot the state’s ruling Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP alliance government in the next Assembly election. People at Amritsar, Jalandhar and Ludhiana railway stations were full of stories about corruption, failing law-and-order situation and lack of development. The sentiment had somewhat showed in the Lok Sabha results; SAD barely held on to its existing seat tally even as people vented their anger against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government at the Centre. This could be attributed entirely to a Modi wave, which swept the entire north and central India by huge margins.

 
Now what?

Interviews with scores of people suggested Modi’s wave had started to wane. I might make a mistake in reading the pulse but the recently held bypolls, civic elections and the Delhi Assembly election point to the same conclusion. The other problem for the SAD-BJP alliance, which surprisingly got a repeat victory in 2012, is now facing anti-incumbency in the state.

The murmurs have already started that BJP might abandon SAD and go it alone, as it did in Maharashtra after dumping its long-standing alliance partner Shiv Sena. But exercising that option might not be easy because BJP lacks cadre support on the ground and doesn’t have a credible leadership in Punjab. Though its progenitor, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, has increased its ground activities in Punjab, tide is unlikely to turn in its favour.

What might work in the state for BJP is lack of a strong Opposition. The Congress is still to come out of the woods after its drubbing in the Lok Sabha elections. The Aam Aadmi Party, which surprised everyone by capturing four parliamentary seats in its maiden election, is struggling with a leadership crisis and lacks organisational strength. All this is likely to result in a close contest among the four parties. For the Congress and AAP, there is nothing to lose. But if the SAD-BJP is reduced in the state, it will affect their strength in the Rajya Sabha, making it difficult for the Union government to see several legislation through in Parliament. Also, it threatens to disturb the social fabric of the state, which has in the past suffered from religious fundamentalism.

The same logic can be applied for Uttar Pradesh, which is very complex in terms of caste and regional politics. I have covered the state elections and the Lok Sabha elections and frequently travelled to many districts in the past, for various other assignments. My reading is that the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which was completely decimated in the 2014 general elections, will make a huge comeback in the Assembly election. BSP will not only get the support of her core voters, the Dalits, but of the Muslims and the upper-caste people who now feel Mayawati was a better administrator than the Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav.

BJP has the poorest organisational strength and I will not be surprised if it stands fourth (the Congress being third) in the coming state election, given the lack of a credible chief ministerial face in BJP for Uttar Pradesh. The leaders the party earlier had have either become ministers or Members of Parliament. Its second rung in Uttar Pradesh has little support. It is amply clear Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah can no more win the state election by using their rhetoric. People on the ground are raising questions on the “56 inch ka seena” and repatriation of black money stashed abroad.

People through their opinions reminded the Lok Sabha elections were way different from Assembly elections.

In Bihar, which is holding a litmus test for Modi’s popularity and his ability to win, voters are completely divided between BJP and the rest — Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). BJP has the chances but it all depends on internal chemistry among leaders than the winning chances of Opposition leaders Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar, who have joined hands.

BJP is holding its cards close to its chest and will make a move only after the rest have made their plans clear. Prasad and Kumar must be waiting for a mistake from BJP to encash it in the state. But if one goes by a simple calculation based on caste and religion, BJP might lag the rest.

In West Bengal, BJP still has to wait for another five-10 years before it can think of getting close to the chief minister’s chair.
(Sahil Makkar is a correspondent for Business Standard)