Harsh V Pant: China's difficult rise

How to manage China's rise and mould its behaviour will be one of New Delhi's biggest diplomatic challenges in the years ahead. India should watch China's behaviour closely and learn how to deal with the rising dragon

China's declaration last month of a new Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), covering the disputed Senkaku Islands, has led to protests from Tokyo, Seoul and Washington. Though it remains far from clear that the Chinese military has the capability to actually enforce its conditions, the declaration itself is once again a reminder that Chinese policy-makers are getting increasingly confident of their ability to get away with provocative actions. The US has described the Chinese move "as a destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region," and a "unilateral action" which will increase "the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation." US B-52 bombers challenged the ADIZ in the East China Sea when they flew over the disputed islands without informing Beijing.

Japan is also beefing up its defences. Its latest defence policy review has recommended setting up of a new amphibious military unit designed to take back disputed islands, boosting the number of fighter jet squadrons at its Naha base in Okinawa as well as procuring and deploying unmanned surveillance drones. China's new ADIZ also overlaps with about 3,000 square kilometres of South Korea's own ADIZ, thereby raising tensions between Seoul and Beijing as well. As if in response, Japan has decided to recognise South Korean sovereignty over islets known as Dokdo, which the Japanese call Takeshima. In return, the South Korea government has promised to suspend all official efforts to change the name of the sea in which Dokdo is located from "Sea of Japan" to "East Sea." Russia, South Korea and the United States have also decided to recognise Japanese sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands, which China and the government of Taiwan both claim.

Tensions are rising in the region with reports that earlier this month there was a near collision between the American cruiser, the Cowpens, and a Chinese amphibious vessel, as the Chinese ship warned the American guided missile cruiser to move away from China's aircraft carrier in the South China Sea. This was the same part of the South China Sea where an American EP-3 surveillance aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter jet in 2001, and where a tense confrontation between a United States Navy surveillance ship, the USS Impeccable, and five Chinese ships occurred in 2009.

There are several reasons for China's aggressive stance on territorial issues in recent times. Some have suggested that hawks are gaining ground in the Chinese military as the PLA becomes a powerful force in the country with is budget growing to $200 billion. There is a sense that China can now prevail in conflicts with its regional adversaries. Some voices have openly called for wars. The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, has argued that in light of China's disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, a short, decisive war, like the 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. This would be possible, as Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats, according to this assessment.

But the larger reason behind China's recent moves is rather simple: China is behaving like a traditional great power, asserting its interests more forcefully with an increase in its capabilities and trying to alter the ground realities in its favour. China's foreign policy thinkers and political establishment have long been trying to convince the world that Beijing's rise is meant to be a peaceful one, that China has no expansionist intentions, that it will be a different kind of great power.

Of course, the very nature of power makes this largely a charade, but what is more surprising is that some Western and Indian liberals have tended to take these assertions at face value. There is an entire industry in the West and in India that would have us believe that China is actually a different kind of a great power and that if others could simply give China a stake in the established order, Beijing's rise would not create any complications. But its recent actions make it clear that China's rise is creating its own logic.

China is merely following in the footsteps of other major global powers who have tried to reshape their regional strategic realities to further their own interests. There is only one kind of great power, and one kind of great power tradition. China is not going to be any different. The sooner the world acknowledges this, the better it will be for global stability.

China's assertiveness is not good news for the region but it should be particularly troubling for India. Beijing's rapidly rising defence expenditure; its expansive maritime sovereignty claims; its aggressive behaviour pursuing them; its support for states such as North Korea and Pakistan; and its non-transparent military build-up all raise questions about its willingness to act as a responsible stakeholder in the region. How to manage China's rise and mould its behaviour will be one of the biggest diplomatic challenges facing New Delhi in the coming years. Many in India argue that given the high stakes that China and India have in each other's economies, conflict between the two is highly unlikely. But as tensions in the South and East China Seas exemplify, economic interdependence has never really been an antidote to conflict. New Delhi should watch China's behaviour closely and learn due lessons in dealing with the rising dragon in its vicinity.

The writer is at King's College, London