Lessons from two elections

Regional parties are not going away so quickly

The elections in Jammu and Kashmir and in Jharkhand have thrown up results that are both surprising and expected, in different ways. As expected, the Bharatiya Janata Party vastly increased its tally in both states; the incumbent governments were hammered, and the Congress hit particularly hard, especially in Jharkhand. These were the expected trends. But, on taking a closer look, some other signs are also visible. It is clearly far too soon to declare the “Modi wave” over. But it is also true that the BJP is perhaps somewhat disappointed with its performance in Jharkhand, where some in the party were hoping for as much as a two-thirds majority for the BJP. It seems that it has not yet been able to penetrate tribal-majority areas as much as it had hoped, with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) holding on to a reasonable proportion of its core vote. Meanwhile, in Jammu & Kashmir, the party’s claim of a “Mission 44” to get a simple majority was always hyperbole; so was the attempt to give the state a Hindu chief minister. The truth was that the party wished a stepping stone to that position, by becoming indispensable to any government formed after the election. It may have failed even at that attempt. It has won votes in double and triple digits in much of the Valley, revealing the limits of claims that it was making inroads there.

However, the big majorities with which the BJP won Hindu majority seats in the Jammu region reveal that the hope that North India placed in Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains intact, and in fact extends to his party even in state elections. The same is true of Jharkhand’s non-tribal areas — it remains to be seen if the BJP will reward this faith by giving the state its first non-tribal chief minister. Meanwhile, in Jammu & Kashmir, it is worth noting that some of the seats that the BJP did well in Jammu are in places such as Kishtwar. These are Muslim-majority areas – though not part of the Valley – and yet the party did well. It is to be hoped that the BJP does not come to the conclusion that communal polarisation is the only way for it to grow its vote — remember Kishtwar and other such areas have been marked by communal tension, reportedly stoked by political elements, in the past few years. Three people died and 13 days of curfew were imposed in the area last year — and it is from here that Mr Modi launched the BJP’s state campaign.

The Congress is more and more marginalised. This is visible particularly in Jharkhand. The party’s internal confusion and the continuing silence on major policy issues of its vice-president, Rahul Gandhi, have caused it to be seen as even less credible than earlier. If this state of affairs continues, the Congress may cease to be a force in parts of the north permanently. But the biggest lesson perhaps is that regional parties are not going away yet. The JMM held on in Jharkhand – actually increasing its tally – and the People’s Democratic Party and the National Conference continue to dominate the Kashmir Valley.