Message from Catalonia

Greater self-determination is becoming a leitmotif worldwide

With the imposition of direct rule on Catalonia and scheduling regional elections for December 21, the Mariano Rajoy government may have staunched the secessionist impulses of one of Spain’s most significant regions — but only temporarily. Madrid’s violent crackdown on a poorly attended referendum on independence on October 1 has exacerbated a crisis that has been simmering for years. Complicating the issue is the fact that the reasons for this explosion of Catalan irredentism are opaque — even to the Spaniards — and it is far from clear that it has unalloyed support within the local populace, either. Like Brexit, the issue of Catalan independence is a polarising one within Catalonia, once the hub of the Republican resistance to the military dictatorship during the Spanish civil war in the 1930s.

To be sure, Madrid’s overreaction, though unwise, is understandable. Catalonia is one of Spain’s more prosperous, culturally vibrant regions. If it breaks away, the Spanish economics ministry says gross domestic product will fall by a quarter and unemployment will double. Catalonia accounts for almost a fifth of Spain’s GDP, the fourth-highest among the country’s 17 regions. Though debt-driven austerity has had its impact on Catalonia as much as the rest of the country, its unemployment rate is below the national average of 13.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. The region accounts for a quarter of Spanish exports, and last year, it was the second-largest recipient of foreign direct investment. Between Barcelona and the famous Costa Del Sol, Catalonia attracts more tourists than any other region in Spain.

The problem, it appears, is a variation of the Dutch Disease, which afflicts resource-rich regions. Supporters of an independent Catalan Republic claim that breaking away will be financially more secure because it will not have to pay taxes to Madrid. All of this suggests that constructive redistributive policies and sensible negotiations may work better than heavy-handedness to defuse tensions. Such contemplated moves as disallowing Carles Puigdemont, the Catalan president, and his pro-independence colleagues from contesting the December elections will do little to help the situation.

The December elections will be an inflexion point in more ways than one. If a pro-independence regime is voted to power, the Catalan Republic may well become a reality. A domino effect is inevitable. Though Spain is culturally integrated not to see the kind of turmoil that tore apart the Yugoslav republic in the early nineties, it is instructive to remember that the violent Basque separatist movement, which terrorised the country for over four decades, ended only in 2011 and may be motivated to revive its claims. Understandably, the European Union has been steadfast in its opposition to a breakaway Catalan republic, but the crisis certainly adds another layer of uncertainty to Europe after Brexit. Perhaps the biggest message from prosperous Catalonia is that the demand for greater self-determination is becoming the leitmotif worldwide. From California and Texas to Greenland, the impulses for autonomy remain alive and kicking and can be ignored only by the most obtuse of political leaders.