Monsoon relief

IMD needs to upgrade prediction skills

A full assessment of the performance and impact of this year’s monsoon on agriculture and economy will take some more time even though the four-month season technically ended on September 30. That’s because the monsoon is still active in other parts of the country despite having retreated from the north. Besides, even crop sowing is not over as yet. However, what can safely be assumed is that there is hardly any cause for concern regardless of the total rainfall being 5 per cent below average and its spread over time and space being slightly uneven. Most of the rain-deficient pockets fall either in the relatively high-rainfall regions, such as the northeast, or in the areas where irrigation is well developed, as in Punjab, Haryana, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Least surprising, therefore, that no state has declared drought despite some prolonged gaps in rainfall. The overall situation is roughly similar to that of last year, when the country bagged a record harvest. This year’s farm output may, therefore, be close to, if not more than, that of last year.

However, agricultural growth numbers may not show sizeable gains because of the base effect and noticeable inter-crop variations in plantings in response to prevailing prices. While the areas under commercial crops such as cotton and sugarcane have expanded substantially in anticipation of better returns, those under pulses and oilseeds have shrunk considerably due to a price slump. It seems fairly certain that the recently released official production estimates, which project a 2.8 per cent dip in kharif output, would have to be revised upwards. This is also because these numbers are based on preliminary visual observations recorded at a time when even the crop sowing was not over. The point to bear in mind is that the additional precipitation due to the belated surge in the monsoon can materially alter the outlook for agriculture and other rain-dependent economic sectors even if it is technically counted as post-monsoon rainfall. These showers are likely to benefit not only the standing crops but also leave enough residual moisture in the soils to facilitate sowing in the next rabi crops. More importantly, these can augment the water stock in major reservoirs, which, at present, is about 11 per cent below last year’s corresponding level and 13 per cent below average.

That said, the fact that can also not be disregarded is that the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has once again erred, even if marginally, in its long-range monsoon prediction despite an appreciable improvement in its short- to medium-range weather forecasting capabilities. Though the margin of error this time is not too large, what exposes the IMD’s failing is that it chose to raise its rainfall prediction to 98 per cent of normal, from 96 per cent projected originally, in the midst of the rainy season. The actual rainfall fell short of even the initially anticipated mark. Private weather forecaster Skymet, on the other hand, stuck to its original prognosis of 95 per cent rainfall, which ultimately held true. The weather office, therefore, needs to further refine its skills for long-term weather predictions.