Neither sweet nor a terrorist, just a political opportunist

Whether the AAP will upset the electoral applecart of the major players in Punjab remains to be seen but irrespective of the results, Arvind Kejriwal's tactics reveal a pattern in his politics.

The National Coordinator of the Aam Adami Party (AAP) or its ‘Chief Broom’ Arvind Kejriwal is not the “world’s sweetest terrorist” as he described himself. He was responding to attacks by his political adversaries in Punjab, where voters sealed their fate in EVMs yesterday.

In concerted outrage, his opponents painted him as a danger to national security after allegations by one-time comrade-in-arms Kumar Vishwas that during the Punjab state election of 2017, Kejriwal had shrugged off warnings against hobnobbing with separatists, claiming that he would “either be the CM of a state or PM of a nation (Khalistan)”.

As if on cue, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi and chief ministerial candidate Charanjit Singh Channi targeted him as did party spokespersons. Union Home Minister Amit Shah responded to a complaint from Channi accusing Kejriwal of “personal” links with “Sikhs for Justice” a separatist group. Indeed, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Punjab president, Ashwani Sharma, was caught on camera telling voters that if they did not want to vote for the BJP, they should vote for the Congress rather than waste it on AAP. Whether the AAP will upset the electoral applecart of the major players remains to be seen but irrespective of the election results, Kejriwal’s tactics reveal a pattern in his politics.

Kejriwal rode the wave for change in 2017 with talk of people-oriented governance. AAP was successful in wooing the Sikh peasantry winning a higher average vote share in rural constituencies than in urban centres. Allegations of being sympathetic to radical Sikh elements drove away urban Hindu voters from AAP. This time around, when the party is again trying to woo the urban Hindu vote, predictably the old allegations of being in bed with Sikh separatists have resurfaced.

Kejriwal’s focus on the Hindus voters (38% of the population) who had swung towards the Congress in 2017, is based on a perception that they are up for grabs. The Congress lost ground among them after senior Congress leader Ambika Soni declared that a non-Sikh could not be the chief minister of Punjab, followed by the exit of seasoned Congress leader Sunil Jakhar, a contender for the top job. The Hindus of Punjab were probably never so blatantly confronted with their marginal political status in the state.

To appeal to the confused Hindu voter, Kejriwal turned to the ‘homely’ communalism of AAP. He did a temple run in Punjab including attending a “jagrata” (a night-long worship of Goddess Durga) at Devi Talab Temple, visiting Shri Tripurmalini Shaktipeeth and the Ram Tirath temple in Amritsar, among others. Then five days before polling day, Kejriwal claimed that ever since the alleged security lapse involving Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Hindus felt unsafe in Punjab.

The Jat Sikh vote is currently alienated from all political parties including the AAP because of their lesser or greater support to the farm laws. Given the messy political situation, it is probable that the Jat Sikhs might again consolidate behind their traditional party, the SAD, leaving them out of Kejriwal’s reach. Only the Sanyukt Samaj Morcha of Balbir Singh Rajewal stood with farmers but it does not have even half a chance of winning enough seats to impact governance.

In this context, caste identity has perhaps gained salience in the present election for all parties especially the Dalit vote. The Dalit population of Punjab forms 32 percent of the population but it is not a homogenous group. For a start 60 per cent are Sikhs and 40 per cent Hindu. They are further divided by sect into the Majhabi Sikhs (31.5%), followed by Ramdassia/Ravidassia Sikhs (26%), Ad-Dharmis (15%), Valmiki Hindus (11%), etc. Even the founder of the Bahujan Samaj party, Kanshi Ram was unable to consolidate the Dalit vote in Panjab and was forced to debut in Uttar Pradesh.

The fractured Dalit vote therefore was open to wooing. Kejriwal visited the religious “deras” that Dalits are affiliated to. To draw Ravidassias away from supporting Channi, the Dalit face of the Congress, the AAP also launched accusations of corruption against him.

Irrespective of whether he comes to power in Punjab, Kejriwal perhaps already sees himself as the winner. If he is able to form a government in the state, he gets a free pass into the club of Opposition leaders trying to form an anti-BJP federal front for the 2024 general election--he could claim a hold over 20 Lok Sabha seats, 13 in Punjab and 7 in Delhi. However, even if AAP is the first runner-up in Punjab, its improved performance along with Delhi, Goa and Uttarakhand, will underline its growth as a national party. Yet, there could be a downside to Kejriwal’s tactical gamble in Punjab. His image makeover as a Hindu leader could impact the party’s fortunes in Delhi. In the next Delhi elections, the minority vote could go back to the Congress. Kejriwal could then meet his comeuppance--losing his ‘empire’ in Delhi in a bid to expand it.

In effect, the Punjab campaign has shown up Kejriwal as a rank political opportunist who normalizes his communally divisive politics as Hindu devoutness. He has once again proven that he can do anything in pursuit of power: after claiming to be apolitical he ditched his leader Anna Hazare to launch his own political party; he got rid of comrades like Yogendra Yadav and Prashant Bhushan to eliminate any challenge to his leadership; he formed an alliance government with the Congress in Delhi in the name of secularism but ditched it post-haste and he even side-lined his alter-ego, Kumar Vishwas, for his growing ambition. So as not to alienate the Hindu voters in Delhi he abandoned his minority voters over communal citizenship laws and during the North-East Delhi communal riots.

The Punjab campaign once again shows that Kejriwal is neither a separatist nor a terrorist by a long shot. He is a rank opportunist like every other political leader and the AAP is no better or worse than any other party.