Not by caste alone

SP infighting in UP shows the need for a 'development' face

What is happening in Uttar Pradesh? As the Assembly polls in India’s largest and most influential state draw ever closer, almost all attention nationwide has been captured by the family drama being played out within the ruling Samajwadi Party. It appears now – though, in this volatile state and in this unpredictable party any real conclusions might be premature – that Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav has finally demonstrated the extent of his support to his father, the founder of the SP, Mulayam Singh Yadav. The senior Mr Yadav has been forced, it appears, to confront incontrovertible evidence that an overwhelming majority of party legislators back his son. The endgame is still unclear. Will the party split? Will the family reconcile? Will either leader bend to the other and keep the party intact?  Nevertheless, some immediate implications can be drawn.

The first inference is political. The infighting has thrown the election open. As the massive rally addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Lucknow on Monday showed, the Bharatiya Janata Party remains a strong contender. The Bahujan Samaj Party, the other major aspirant to power, has always run quiet, under-the-radar campaigns. The assumption has to be, surely, that without any real reconciliation, the SP’s ticket distribution will be a fraught process. Party cadre on the ground could find themselves divided and uncertain. A straightforward reading would suggest, therefore, that the BJP and the BSP have received a shot in the arm. Yet there are other considerations, too. If Akhilesh Yadav is given a freer hand to settle the fate of his party, an alliance with the Congress might become more likely; a crucial few more percentage points in the vote might be enough to turn a three-cornered election. Plus in UP, where there is a substantial floating vote that coalesces behind the apparent winner, such an alliance would have a multiplier effect on electoral support for the SP. In addition, the CM’s apparent victory will give him an aura of “strength”, something that might well appeal to young men who would otherwise be natural BJP voters.

The second implication of these recent events is that it underlines exactly how much the politics of UP has changed. It is no longer enough, even in UP, to rely purely on old-style calculations of patronage and caste. In order to win, to construct cross-caste coalitions and to deliver floating voters, you have to also have a clear “development” face. This insight has driven many state-level leaders across the country. As the SP legislators’ backing of their CM shows, it has finally reached UP, too. Whether or not the younger Mr Yadav is the finest CM UP has had is not the point, he has assiduously cultivated a development-oriented, “efficient” image that is quite at odds with the one otherwise associated with his party. This does not just attract voters, it allows parties such as the Congress to more easily consider an alliance they can sell as being with the CM personally rather than the discredited SP organisation. If the SP is to somehow defy the odds and return to power, it will be because, as in other states, a personality has begun to transcend the once-narrow aims of his party.