Partnering the Emirates

Building on successes of PM's trip to the UAE

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United Arab Emirates has been successful on many counts. In particular, the security component of the relationship between India and the UAE has been given a firm foundation that must now be built on. In addition, there was an agreement on investment; a joint fund for investment in infrastructure is to be set up, with a target of $75 billion. Whether this will work out, of course, is the open question; India's record on converting promised investments in memoranda of understanding into investments on the ground is poor. Still, the potential exists for co-operation in this regard. The UAE is busy trying to rebrand itself as a source of financial competence and investment rather than a tax haven or dodgy offshore location. Basing an infrastructure-focused fund in the UAE does in fact, thus, meet both countries' requirements.

The most significant aspect of the joint statement may well have been the firm words about cross-border and sectarian terrorism. The two countries "condemn efforts, including by states, to use religion to justify, support and sponsor terrorism against other countries". There was a promise to strengthen co-operation in extradition arrangements; in fact, India has had an extradition agreement with the UAE for over a decade. Usually it is last-mile hitches which prevent these extraditions from taking place; however, the India-born gangster kingpins who lived in Dubai in the 1990s have mostly relocated to Pakistan or Southeast Asia, away from extradition threats. The anti-terrorism message was underlined by the PM in a speech later to members of the Indian community in a local stadium. He also pointed out that there was no such thing as "good Taliban" - although there was some irony in making the statement in the place where the Taliban talked in June to Kabul's representatives.

That the visit seemed to have such a major anti-terrorism focus, including state terrorism, will inevitably be seen as a message to Pakistan. The context for this joint statement, and for the UAE's leaders' willingness to accommodate Indian concerns, is multi-dimensional. On the one hand, the UAE is concerned both about the terrorists of the Islamic State, or IS, and also of the re-emergence of Iran after the Islamic Republic successfully concluded negotiations over its nuclear programmes. On the other hand, a major bulwark of the security planning of the UAE and its close partner Saudi Arabia was the Pakistan military. It has invested a great deal in that country's military establishment over the years. Yet this year when those debts were called in, Pakistan refused to oblige; its National Assembly voted to avoid sending troops to take on the Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen, who were the target of attacks by a coalition led by the Sunni Arab monarchies. With a resurgent Iran, a distracted US and a reticent Pakistan, the Gulf is forced to look elsewhere for allies. India should move to capitalise on this moment. Many forward steps are possible. Naval exercises, for one; the Indian navy sent four ships to the Gulf for a month in 2013, and though the Indian government described it as just a "port call", one day's basic exercises were conducted. Something more advanced in scope - with, in addition, a regular periodicity and a name - would be an obvious step forward.