Party like it's 1999

BES: Everyone wants an iPhone. New-economy darlings like Amazon.com are enjoying a renaissance. Even old-economy stalwarts like Caterpiller, the digger-maker, sees a potentially swift recovery. The Wall Street earnings season is giving green-shootists plenty of encouragement.

Meanwhile, financial markets are buoyant: the oil price has crossed $80 a barrel and bankers are plotting sizeable new issues. No wonder the Breakingviews.com Economic Spot-check, our proprietary index of economic and financial newsflow, is back at a series high of 2.7. On the index’s classifications, the score indicates a world economy closer to stabilising than declining.

Many will see this is evidence that stimulus is working. But some economies are still in real trouble. Just consider the terrible GDP numbers from the UK last week. Moreover, a few good results from companies that either benefit from strong competitive positions or aggressive cost-cutting do not make a recovery. The scale of the rebound in some quarters will also stoke inflation fears.

The index stubbornly continues to refuse to declare that the global economy has safely stabilised – with good reason.