Pharaoh declines

Egypt: Hosni Mubarak's belligerence increases risk on all fronts. The refusal of Egypt's president of 30 years to go quickly or quietly is deeply destabilising. It reduces the chance of an orderly transition and prolongs the uncertainty over what will come next. Meanwhile the growing, passionate protests increase the likelihood of geopolitical contagion.

There might still be some upside if Mubarak uses a rapidly closing window to agree a quick and peaceful transition to a democratic regime - or at least a credible timetable for an elected, civilian government to take over. But his determination to try and stick out his term as a lame duck could quickly morph into bloody chaos as tensions in the country boil over. That leaves Egypt in the worst of both worlds; stuck in a power vacuum with a discredited leader, and uncertain of what comes next. The apparent inability of a supposedly powerful army to force him to go suggests that the generals might be reluctant to agree a transition that would ultimately send them back to their barracks. With industrial action gaining momentum, the stress on the economy risks creating a financial mess to match the country's political state of affairs.

The longer Egypt's high profile unrest dominates global headlines, fuelled by social media of the Google and Twitter kind, the more likely it is that similar protests in Algeria, Bahrain, Jordan or Yemen will gain strength. But the welcome push for democracy doesn't bring stability by itself. Iran has a keen interest in what happens in the area as its influence there, depending on the outcome, could be weakened or strengthened. And, the failure of the United States to bear on events shows its influence is seriously undermined. That brings unrest nearer to the doorstep of the world's largest oil reserves, in Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom itself is home to a marginalised Shi'ite minority concentrated in the Eastern province, home to some of the country's key oil infrastructure. Even without a mass uprising, pockets of turmoil near or within Saudi borders would heighten risk of disruption to the world's oil supply. Events in Egypt are likely to set the tone for how things unfold elsewhere - and as the Arab world's most populous nation is contemplating chaos, that isn't encouraging.