Preparing for the Taliban

Govt urgently needs to craft a credible, coordinated response

Foreign Minister S Jaishankar’s call for a “clear, coordinated and undifferentiated response” to the impending takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban may reflect the Indian government’s belated understanding of the true nature of the regime that looks likely to take power in Kabul in a matter of months. Addressing the virtual inaugural session of the Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa (Brics) Academic Forum, Mr Jaishankar unequivocally questioned the legitimacy of the Taliban and its role in stoking regional terrorism. His statements suggest that the rationale within sections of the foreign policy establishment for India to explore accommodation with the Taliban has been replaced by a realisation of the unfeasibility of establishing meaningful relations with a client that Pakistan has assiduously nurtured for more than two decades. It also reflects the mounting sense of disquiet among the principal regional actors that was expressed at the recent foreign ministers’ meeting under the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Tajikistan last month. 

Since the abrupt withdrawal of US forces from the country in May, the resurgent Taliban has taken more territory than it has held after it was ousted in 2001. The brutality that has accompanied this ultra-extremist Sunni group’s surge from strongholds in the south suggests that the nature of its regime is unlikely to differ substantially from its late-1990s’ avatar. Given the history of hijacking and heightened terrorism in the erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir in that era, the return of the Taliban raises new challenges for the Narendra Modi government. Mr Jaishankar’s outreach to “stakeholders”, China in particular, can be seen as one element of the response. But the effort needs to transcend words and focus on creating a coalition that can strengthen Afghanistan’s democratically elected government.
 

India’s presidency of the UN Security Council for the month of August offers the chance to build a global response to the crisis. On Tuesday, the Afghan foreign minister requested Mr Jaishankar to convene an emergency session of the UNSC to discuss ways to stop the Taliban and its human rights abuses in Afghanistan. But the substantive responses for India lie in the domestic sphere as well. It is no secret that New Delhi has struggled to stabilise the political situation in Jammu & Kashmir after the government read down Articles 370 and 35A, ending the state’s special status and carving it into two Union Territories in 2019. Despite one of the longest and most draconian internet shutdowns and mass arrests of protestors and key leaders, the region, now under direct central rule, simmers with unrest. The February ceasefire with Pakistan remains precarious, with pinprick actions such as the drone attack in Jammu a month ago suggesting that escalation is possible at any time.

Much was expected from the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the leaders of Jammu & Kashmir’s political parties under the banner of the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD). But the meeting has yielded little beyond optics, a non-time-bound promise from the Centre to grant J&K statehood and an unrealistic demand from the PAGD leaders to roll back the abrogation of Article 370. An accelerated plan for statehood may go some way towards allaying Kashmiri dissatisfaction but whether that will be enough to stave off the threat from Pakistan-sponsored freelance terrorists milling around the Afghanistan-Pakistan region is a question that remains wide open.