Preventing another peak

State govts must be more vigilant during festivities

The committee of scientists appointed by the Union government’s Department of Science and Technology in June to construct a forecasting model for the spread of the novel coronavirus has suggested that the pandemic has reached a peak in India in September. If precautionary measures are retained, the committee suggests, the pandemic would be largely brought under control by February next year. The notion that the spread of the virus has reached its first peak in India has also been put forward by government officials, and seems to be broadly reflected in the national aggregate figures for new infections and recoveries. The committee has also been quite clear that, according to its model-based analysis, the lockdown in March helped control the spread of the virus and the reverse migration to villages observed during the lockdown did not have an immediate effect in extending the spread. Certainly, it seems to be the case that it was only after the resumption of much economic activity that rural India began to be hit by an increasing number of cases.

However, the committee is right to warn that the next few weeks will be crucial. As Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan pointed out recently, India must heed the warning example of Kerala, which had successfully controlled the virus’ spread till crowds gathered for the Onam festival. Since then, there has been a spurt in cases. Dr Vardhan described the Kerala government’s allowing crowds to gather for the festival as “negligence”. This may appear harsh but is also, given the outcome, justified. Yet, other state governments have also faced popular pressure over festival permissions. The Gujarat government has banned garba gatherings during the current Navaratri festival, but community prayers and other events will be permitted. In Uttar Pradesh, Ramlila festivals will continue, limited to a crowd of spectators of 100 people, in keeping with the Union government’s “unlock” guidelines.

In West Bengal, the Calcutta High Court has stepped in to prevent a festive surge in Covid cases and has ordered that no visitors will be allowed inside Durga Puja pandals in the state. Governments may worry about a social backlash resulting from controlling crowds during the festive season. But it is important to understand that the consequences of a spike in virus cases would be even worse. According to the official sero-surveys, less than 7 per cent of the population has so far been exposed to the virus. In other words, there is plenty of room for the number of cases to grow — unless precautionary measures continue to be taken. The experience of many areas which had controlled the virus only to grow lax reveals the danger of complacency. Not just Kerala, but even some of the richest and best organised parts of the world — Belgium and the Netherlands — have seen sharp resurgences of the virus. If India has peaked once, it must maintain the flattened trajectory of the curve. Neither the economy nor the health care system would be able to deal with another peak. The next few weeks would be a big test for both state administrative agencies and citizens in general.