Siege mentality cannot be good for the BJP and its leadership

Immediate political damage to the party from the security breach might only be in Punjab, but depending on how the incident is amplified it could become a useful spin for the other state elections.

Several administrative initiatives have already been taken to fix responsibility for the lapse in the Prime Minister’s security on his recent road trip in Punjab. Why then has it been converted into an issue to drum up political support for the Prime Minister by his party and admirers? Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s reaction was already over the top when he sent a sarcastic message to the Punjab Chief Minister, thanking him for reaching Bhatinda alive ("Apne CM ko thanks kehna, ki mein Bhatinda airport tak zinda laut paaya"). However, this astounding statement has led to a flurry of party initiatives that confirm a siege mentality in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its leadership. Did the Prime Minister really fear bodily harm from a bunch of protesting farmers or others who may differ with his policies?

Earlier too, Indian TV viewers were taken aback by the dense barricading of farmers who were agitating peacefully on the borders of Delhi. Carried out under the directions of the Union Home Ministry, the national highways were dug up and concertina wire fences and concrete blocks were placed to block movement of people and vehicles. Even spikes were embedded on road surfaces for good measure.

After the Bathinda episode, it seems that a generalised mistrust of groups opposing the government has now started affecting the top leadership of the government. Clearly, for the 15-20 minutes that the prime minister was in the traffic jam he felt isolated, vulnerable and unprotected even with his posse of Special Protection Group Commandos and Punjab Police accompanying him. That he should voice his mental state publicly suggests that he still holds a strongly negative attitude towards the farmers and presumes that the farmers also reciprocate it in some measure.

What apparent reason is there for a prime minister with an overwhelming parliamentary majority to shrink into victimhood? He still remains the most charismatic leader of his party, hogs the most amount of media time and public mind space compared to other politicians and is venerated by his supporters. His new avatar as a victim obsessed with a fear for his life goes counter to everything that makes him the mascot of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as well as the larger Hindutva family of organisations. It also shreds his strong national security narrative to pieces, where far from securing the nation he is even unable to feel secure himself.

Is it then possible that Prime Minister Modi doubts his popularity to the point where he is afraid of even talking to a bunch of peaceful protestors? Or did it even ever exist? One knows little of the real person outside of choreographed appearances on television and public platforms. Only that image is conveyed which he chooses to: dog-whistling against minorities one minute, feeding peacocks like a gentle sage the next, as a deeply righteous ‘God-King’ in Kashi or sermonising on tackling exams to students on “Mann ki Baat”. He has never shown himself learning from others and especially from those who disagree with his policies. If he refuses to answer questions even from a largely controlled media, where is the question of him wading into a group of protestors like Indian leaders of yore, or like Punjab Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi more recently, and talk to them face-to-face?

It is also possible that Prime Minister Modi has become aware of restlessness about his leadership in the party after the indiscreet revelations made by Meghalaya Governor Satyapal Malik to the media. Malik claimed that Union Home Minister Amit Shah told him that the prime minister had “lost his mind” or was being “misled by people” (depending on the translation of “iskee akal maar rakhi hai logon ne”). If he was lying, then surely given Shah’s clout and closeness to the prime minister, he would have had Malik’s head by now. When even his colleagues in the Council of Ministers start doubting his leadership, it can mean only one thing--they believe that he has lost or is losing mass support. Rallying around him is then no longer profitable for them as it cannot assure political success.

Since the Satyapal Malik expose perhaps the Bhatinda incident has been used by an insecure prime minister to orchestrate public support for himself. The social media, his bulwark since he became candidate for the top job in September 2013, has helped him pull another command performance. His remarks about his life having been deliberately put in jeopardy has sent out the signal to ministers and party apparatchiks to rally behind him.

Sure enough, ministers who stood silent when Satpal Malik’s outrageously leaked his private conversations with the prime minister and home minister to the media, were on television asserting their loyalty to him by parroting the “threat to the PM” narrative that he had unleashed. Party units since have organised mass chanting in temples of Mahamritunjay Mantra (a ritual to thwart the prospect of death). The token Muslims of the party prayed at Haji Ali, Ajmer Sharif and Nizamuddin shrines for his safety. The social media unit of the BJP has gone into an overdrive with many supporters changing their handles to “I am Modi” (reminiscent of the “Mein bhi chowkidar” social media campaign) showing solidarity with the prime minister and attacking the Congress government in Punjab.

As of now the immediate political damage to the prime minister and his party from the incident might only be in Punjab where the BJP has no real prospect of winning. But depending on how the Bhatinda incident is amplified it could become a useful spin for the upcoming state elections in Uttar Pradesh where the real battle for the BJP lies.

But there are dangerous implications for spin-offs from a strategy of invoking fear and a state of siege. Painting Sikh farmers as ‘enemies’ for short-term electoral gains will no doubt be strategically counterproductive and will provide fuel to incipient Khalistani trouble makers. Hyping up his siege mentality could make Prime Minister Modi prone to grave blunders.