The power disequilibrium in Sri Lanka

Why does everyone in government in that country want to sit in the opposition?

When is the opposition not in the opposition?

When it is in government, obviously!

If only it were that simple.

Two political groupings are debating the existential dilemmas of being in the opposition while also being in government, although their circumstances are very different. The Communist Party of India Marxist (CPI M) is discussing passionately whether it should stick to its position and struggle alone to bring about a revolution with Indian characteristics, marking a permanent place in the opposition; or tie up with other parties, even those that are only marginally like-minded, to present a solid phalanx against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that is intent on gobbling up India, ruthlessly eliminating what opposition stands before it. It has been in government before, with the Congress. There are sections that are more comfortable being in the opposition.

Somewhat similar is the drama playing out in neighbouring Sri Lanka. In 2015, the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), a left-leaning grouping in its economic outlook (but not in race relations), struck a deal with the right-wing United National Party (UNP) to form a government in which, theoretically, everyone should have been happy. The common enemy was Mahinda Rajapaksa, outgoing President who had ‘vanquished’ the LTTE, the most feared guerilla group in the subcontinent, ending a three-decade war between the minority Tamils in North and East Sri Lanka and the majority Sinhala Buddhists. The important thing to note here is: Rajapaksa ended the war, not the source of conflict. His health minister, Maithripala Sirisena, walked out of the SLFP, became the presidential candidate for a job that should have put a full stop to the nepotism, cronyism and corruption of the previous government, restored the faith of the minorities and put Sri Lanka on a new growth trajectory. Sirisena appointed Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister as the UNP had a majority in Parliament and agreed to amend the constitution that truncated his powers as 

executive president.

Everything was hunky-dory for the first few months. All Sri Lanka revelled in the restoration of democracy. Elements in the Rajapaksa administration were prosecuted, jailed and if they were abroad, hunted down. A reset was attempted in foreign policy, correcting a seeming pro-China bias. In other words, for a brief but crucial period, Sri Lanka had really no opposition, only a government, because the opposition was the government.

Obviously this state of affairs could not have endured. Rajapaksa recovered from his losses, went to the people and campaigned about the injustice done to him. Additionally, without attempting to be subtle, he underscored his image of the Sinhala Buddhist warrior a la Dutugemunu, the king of Sri Lanka (164 BC to 140 BC) who led the military campaign against invading warlord Elara. Strategic support by him to the Sinhala Buddhist Bodu Bala Sena and its campaign against Muslim minorities led to severe rioting.

Add to this corruption in the form of the Bonds scandal that involved the Wickremesinghe-appointed central bank Governor Arjuna Mahendran and Rajapaksa didn’t even have to try. He swept the local government polls in February this year — and became the legitimate opposition pole to which all the discontented (both in government and outside) rallied.

The Rajapaksa-led Joint Opposition (JO) then put in a motion of no confidence against the Prime Minister. Sirisena, recognising which side of his bread was buttered, told SLFP MPs to vote according to their conscience. Some were ministers. They voted against their own Prime Minister. Naturally, they had to step down because Wickremesinghe won the no-confidence motion.

So now, in the excessively and punctiliously constitutional politics of Sri Lanka, there is a mess — because everyone wants to sit in the opposition benches. The UNP is in a majority. But elements within the UNP have made no secret of their disenchantment with the PM — some abstained in the no confidence motion when the government needed every man on the deck in order to survive. A full scale reshuffle is due soon after the President returns from CHOGM. He would dearly like to sack the Prime Minister — but after the 19th amendment of the constitution, that he himself consented to, he can’t. The power disequilibrium within the government is no secret, especially for the bureaucracy.

General elections in Sri Lanka are due in 2020. How the government, which appears to have acquired an opposition mindset, is going to function till then is anybody’s guess. Meanwhile, the questions remains: when is the opposition, not in the opposition?