The resurgence of factional politics

Why the Congress' stable future in Kerala is in question

In the ongoing struggle between Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee President Ramesh Chennithala, who will emerge victorious? The strife has become so intense that last month, the pater familias, Defence Minister A K Antony, had to go down to Kerala to broker peace. He evaded making a choice. Last week, Chandy met Congress President Sonia Gandhi to explain why he didn't want to take Chennithala in the government. This followed what seems to have been a hugely successful Kerala yatra that Chennithala undertook all of April, ostensibly to rouse the Congress into activity in the state, but observers say, to put pressure on Chandy to include him in the government as deputy chief minister with the charge of the home portfolio.

For the Congress, the stakes are high. In the Assembly elections in May 2011, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) just sqeaked past the post with a narrow majority over the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-controlled Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the 140-member state Assembly. The UDF won 72 seats - just one more than simple majority. The LDF bagged 68 seats. In the 2006 Assembly polls, the LDF had won 98 seats and the UDF 42.

An analysis of the victory revealed that by winning 38 out of 82 Assembly seats it had contested, the Congress' performance was passable. But real victory belonged to the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) that won 20 out of 24 seats it contested. Muslims are 25 per cent of Kerala's voting population. A factoid is that the IUML got around eight per cent of the votes; but the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that got six per cent of the votes got zero seats. This is an important factor, of which more later.

Though the Congress and its allies were able to form a government, this was far short of the stupendous victory in the Lok Sabha elections in 2009: 16 out of 20 Lok Sabha seats.

So, while there is still time for Assembly elections, it is imperative that the Congress and its allies retain its hold of the Lok Sabha seats ahead of the 2014 general elections.

But several political factors are standing in the way: hence the resurgence of factional politics in the Congress.

First, the Nair Service Society (NSS), an influential caste group, which has been seen as pro-Congress, announced on May 30 that it was formally severing links with the Congress. As Chennithala is a Nair, it is not really known whether this was a threat voiced by the organisation on behalf of one of its leaders; or disappointment that Chennithala had not yet been made a minister. The NSS said its doors were open for anyone, including the CPI (M). Right now, the perception is that the UDF government is led by a combination of minorities: the Christians (represented by Chandy) and the Muslims (led by IUML minister P K Kunhalikutty). So there is no one to speak for the Hindus.

Also, the Sreenarayana Dharmaparipalana Yogam, the other big Hindu political organisation representing the Ezhava caste, said it would oppose the Congress. Local issues were at the heart of the decision, but the Congress is worried enough to scramble to reassure both.

The loss of the Nair vote will be a huge setback to the Congress. The Ezhava vote is an even bigger worry. At the end of April, the biggest Ezhava shrine in Kerala, the Sivagiri Mutt in Kollam, had an unexpected visitor: Narendra Modi. The Ezhava leadership claimed that it invited everyone - Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi, etc - for a function. Only Modi responded. In his Kerala visit, Modi achieved what the Congress and the CPI (M) had been united in: to prevent his visit to Kerala. He said as much in his speech: "Although untouchability in social life has come down because of the untiring efforts of our saints, it is increasing in politics."

All this is causing blind panic in the Congress: panic which Chennithala is leveraging to his advantage. He wants to be deputy chief minister and home minister. The argument is that he has been the party chief for eight years. Chandy says he has a perfectly adequate home minister (T Radhakrishnan). At the back of his mind is the fear of what Chennithala, a highly organised, charismatic and efficient leader, will do to him if he is made the deputy. Chennithala is equally clear: that he will accept nothing less than the home portfolio.

Chennithala's calculation is that in Kerala, the Congress is heading for a fall in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. If he joins the government, someone else will take over the state party. And if the Congress does really badly, it is Chandy who will have to take the rap. Then he will be best positioned to become chief minister.

But in the coalition politics of Kerala, even a one per cent swing of votes can cause an unpredictable upheaval. The BJP's performance could be a wild card in 2014.