Bihar bypolls to test RJD-JD(U) alliance

Congress to beef up its own unit, likely to change its state chief

Re-alignment of political forces in Bihar, with arch rivals Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] joining hands along with the Congress to take on a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has made the upcoming by-polls to 10 Assembly seats next month an interesting contest.

This restructuring of forces has also spurred the Congress to strengthen its depleted unit in the state, and it is likely that the state party chief, Ashok Chaudhary, would be replaced. The redrawing of the political landscape in the state is also crucial as it entirely changes the hitherto set political equations in the run up to the 2015 Assembly elections.

Evidence of the re-drawn political boundaries was evident on Sunday at Sonia Gandhi’s iftaar party, as both Lalu and JD(U) senior leaders Sharad Yadav and K C Tyagi occupied pride of place at Sonia Gandhi’s table. The combined vote share of the three parties in the recently held Lok Sabha elections was 45 per cent while that of BJP’s was 29.4 per cent.

Congress may see a change of leadership in the state as Ashok Chaudhary is now looked at as one who has failed to bring together the state leaders. Chaudhary, a young Dalit leader, had in fact been handpicked by Congress Vice-President Rahul Gandhi to lead the party through the crucial Lok Sabha polls. However, according to party insiders, state leaders are not happy with Chaudhary. This could see an upper caste leader being appointed as PCC chief to counter BJP’s increasing appeal among the upper castes.

According to the new seat-sharing arrangements, while the JD(U) and RJD would contest four seats, the Congress would fight two seats. To cement their alliance, the friends-turned-foes, Nitish Kumar and Laloo Yadav, would soon be seen sharing the stage together in the run up to the August 21 bypolls.

The test for this grand alliance would be the outcome of these bypolls. If the new tie-up succeeds, the alliance would be a given deal for 2015 state polls and if it fails then it could be back to the drawing board for these parties.