BJP likely to win Uttar Pradesh but with smaller mandate, says Sudha Pai

Pai highlights the important issues in the upcoming polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power, although opinion polls indicate a significant reduction in the number of seats, says SUDHA PAI, former professor, Centre for Political Studies, School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University. In an interview with Aditi Phadnis, she highlights the important issues in the upcoming polls. Edited excerpts:

After five years of being virtually comatose, the Samajwadi Party (SP) seems to be storming back into contention. Where did the party go wrong earlier and what is it doing right now?

The SP was traditionally viewed as a Yadav-Muslim party by people from the backward class and Dalits. Despite efforts throughout the 1990s, Mulayam Singh could not homogenise the backward classes, as caste-class divides created fragmentation. While Akhilesh Yadav did succeed to some extent in 2012 to widen the base by gaining support from across castes and capturing power, the non-Yadav lower backward class and non-Jatav Dalits moved toward the BJP after 2014, attracted by the promises of development and social inclusion by Narendra Modi.

Today, Akhilesh Yadav hopes to take advantage of the existential crisis facing the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and what is perceived as the unraveling of the ‘Maha-Hindu’ subaltern social coalition of lower backward class people and the Dalits, built by Narendra Modi in 2014.

A number of disgruntled lower backward caste leaders such as Swamy Prasad Maurya have moved to the SP, alleging that lower-caste interests have been ignored.

Akhilesh has also stitched alliances with small OBC and Dalit parties —Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party, Keshav Dev Maurya’s Mahan Dal, the Apna Dal (K) and Sanjay Chauhan’s Janwadi Party (Socialist) — many of whom earlier supported the BJP. This explains Akhilesh Yadav positioning himself as the leader of the ‘pitchade’, changing the election discourse into a battle between Hindutva and social justice. It remains to be seen if the BJP can overcome the desertions, and continue to attract the lower backward class and Dalits to defeat Akhilesh Yadav’s efforts.

When Yogi Adityanath was made CM, many predicted that the BJP would find itself in the throes of an internal war. Is this accurate and what impact do you see on the current state of internal politics in the party?

Adityanath was not the first choice of the BJP. However, Modi selected Adityanath to establish a hard-Hindutva politics in UP, which is backfiring on a number of counts. First, the declining image of the Adityanath government creating disillusionment. The immediate reason for such an impression being the mishandling of the second Covid-19 wave.

Second, the poor law and order situation, high crime rates, rising atrocities against Dalits and minorities, sexual assaults on women, price rise, and the economic slowdown leading to lack of jobs and poverty. Journalists reporting against the government have been arrested or  harassed by the police.

Third, importantly, is differences among BJP leaders in UP over Adityanath’s style of governance. Many are bitter over his inaccessibility and their exclusion from the state’s governance. Angry Brahmins point to ‘Thakurisation’ with the top administration staffed largely by members of Adityanath’s caste; they view Adityanath as a ‘Rajput despot’ more than a BJP leader.

Attempts to oust Adityanath as CM, or make changes in his Cabinet, by Modi and Amit Shah in mid-2021 failed, as RSS supremo Mohan Bhagwat supported him. Moreover, continuing discord within the BJP is evident in two lower caste ministers and a number of MLAs deserting the party, just before the election. The poll results will show whether BJP’s lower caste coalition is unraveling, or internal dissension over denial of tickets is creating the exodus.

What kind of ramifications will the UP election have on the general election in 2024?

A twofold scenario is visible. If the BJP comes back to power in UP with a huge majority as in 2017, it could further upset internal equations. Second, the BJP remains a formidable electoral force but this time it is on the back foot due to the unrest among farmers, the failings of the Adityanath government, divisions within the party, and the economic downturn and distress caused by Covid-19.

The BJP is likely to return to power, though opinion polls indicate a significant reduction in the number of seats. If the Opposition does make a dent, it could encourage the efforts of regional parties to come together for the larger battle in 2024 and mark the beginning of a new anti-BJP politics.