Caste, not development, to decide Nitish, Modi fate in Bihar

Hopes and aspirations of the people are secondary to caste-based arithmetic in the state

Irrespective of the political spectrum, netas know people don't cast their votes, they vote for their caste in Bihar. Time was when former chief minister and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) supremo’s favourite mode of transportation, the uran khatola of Lalu Prasad’s childhood fantasies, the state helicopter, was often out of order. As it is commonly perceived that time is a great healer of pain, under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, Bihar has admittedly come a long way from the hopelessness of RJD's 15 years of ‘misrule’.

It is no exaggeration to say that the total perception about Bihar has changed. The young generation feels the same and are proud of being called Bihari, a concept earlier associated with deep-rooted caste-based politics.

Bihar shining 

Long criticised as a basket case, Bihar recorded a staggering growth rate of 11.95% rate annually at constant prices during 11th Five Year Plan, the highest among states. The pace of growth in the last seven years in the state has pushed Bihar to the centre of all development debates. Bihar is now unceasingly raising the bar and busy setting a higher target. Nitish’s two terms have brought a new ray of hope to Biharis in the state and those living outside.  

The story of change is particularly evident in the new building constructions springing up across the city. The property rates in Patna are comparable to rates in Noida, Ghaziabad, Faridabad and so on as there is a huge demand and there is shortage of land.

MY equation

Nevertheless, it is an open secret that caste still rules the roost when it comes to polls and politics, in particular. Social scientists are of the view that Lalu’s voters’ base became narrower due to the perception that he banked on his famed combination of MY (Muslims and Yadavs), the other backward castes started backing Nitish.

In 2012, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi also attacked Bihar politicians for their 'casteist' outlook and attributed it as the main reason of economic backwardness and lack of development in Bihar.

Caste calculations

Nitish rode to power by denting the Other Backward Caste (OBC) vote bank of Lalu and Dalit vote bank of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) by separating the Extremely Backward Castes (EBCs) from the OBC category and driving out Mahadalits, a group of 20 odd castes from the Dalits or the Scheduled Castes.  

Nitish’s social engineering practically reduced the support base of Lalu and Ramvilas to the dominant OBC caste Yadav and the aggressive Dalit caste Paswan bringing a large number small sub castes from OBCs and Dalits under the umbrella of Janata Dal (United).

 

Caste divisions have traditionally dominated polls in Bihar. Elections have been fought and won on the basis of careful manoeuvreing of caste divides coupled with some deft social engineering. In 2010, Nitish roped in leaders with overt caste and community appeal, such as former RJD leaders Taslimuddin, a former Union Minister, and Dalit leaders Ramai Ram and Shyam Rajak. Taslimuddin returned to the RJD in 2012. Lalu also compromised on his backward caste politics and inducted former JD (U) leader Prabhunath Singh, belonging to the upper-caste Rajput community. 

Numbers speak 

Nitish is an engineer by profession so he is good at numbers.  Of the total votes polled in the 2010 assembly polls, JD (U) got almost 23% and BJP 16.5%, while RJD got 19%. Nitish was aware that the party’s alliance with BJP, if Modi is the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) candidate for Prime Minister, will polarise the Muslim votes behind Lalu and, in the process, make him invincible in 2104 elections.

At present, Nitish is eyeing on the Muslim population who constitute anything between 16 and 18% of the state’s electorate. Even political pundits don’t believe, for instance, that Muslims will fall into automatic embrace by sheer dint of Nitish having severed ties with the BJP.

Modi factor
Several other significant issues are likely to come into play in the run-up to and elections and during the polling process. One of these is the so-called political ‘magic’ of Modi and its impact on the BJP’s prospects. The saffron party strategists are all set to project Modi as a powerful backward leader who managed to achieve political success by weaving Hindutva with development in Gujarat.

The party plans to connect through the ‘Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel statue move’ with the farmers in an apparent bid to reinvent the BJP’s appeal as a party which has a presence in rural India. The BJP is attempting to revive its support base among the business community and upper castes, particularly in the Mithila region.

Future imperfect 

The Congress was ousted from power in Bihar way back in 1990. Since then, the party's performance has gone from bad to worse. In its worst-ever show till date at the last assembly polls in 2010, it won only four out of the 243 seats. The grand old party tried a few things to create a new leadership, including, among backwards. One, it brought Sadhu Yadav and Pappu Yadav, former RJD leaders, into the party.

Both of them failed to revive the party’s fortunes in the state. In the post-Mandal era, the Congress also erred in not projecting any backward leader in Bihar. Any alliance with JD (U) will not serve its cause in the long run and will force it to play second fiddle. It has to start from scratch if it wants to regain its glory of the past.

Development vs identity politics
The forthcoming Lok Sabha elections could well turn out to be the most crucial in the state. Development has emerged as a major issue. It remains to be seen how the people respond. Will they acknowledge the fact that after many years they have seen a government that is actually trying to improve their lot? Or will they stick to caste equations and ignore all other considerations? Will the BJP emerge much stronger after the split? Will it imitate Narendra Modi’s assertiveness or will the moderation of Sushi Modi continues to guide it? It is unlikely that the party will do anything which may disturb the applecart.

If Bihar’s development is legitimate, it is expected to trump caste politics? The image of Bihar has changed, but has Bihar really changed?  In choosing the option of unbending exit from the NDA, Nitish has set himself on the toughest bend of his career.