Cong holds ground in the south, predicts survey

The CNN-IBN-The Hindu Election Tracker survey predicts an overall loss of vote share for the Congress and its allies nationally. Even as the nation saw wave of pro-Lokpal and anti-corruption protests, corruption is only the fifth most important issues for voters in the 2014 elections, according to the survey. Two out of three people feel that the United Progressive Alliance-II government is corrupt and that corruption has increased over the last four years, while a growing number believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is better at handling corruption than the UPA.

On the whole, respondents viewed the Centre as more corrupt than the State governments, except for Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Haryana – all Congress-ruled. In Uttar Pradesh, the State and Central governments were ranked as equally corrupt while in Gujarat, the UPA was ranked as just slightly more corrupt than the BJP State government.

In Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK has increased its vote share by three percentage points — from 23 in the 2009 Lok Sabha election to 26 now — according to the survey. It also predicts both the Congress and the BJP would stand to gain in the State if a general election were to be held now. Tamil Nadu voters believe that the AIADMK government led by Jayalalithaa is faring better than the UPA government at the Centre and the previous DMK regime on various counts, according to the opinion poll. The DMK's vote base has gone down sharply — from 25% in 2009 to 16.

In Karnataka, the Congress’s vote share is likely to go up by 9%, compared to the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. The opposition, meanwhile,  is yet to get its act together. The expected arrival of the Gujarat Chief Minister and campaign committee head, Narendra Modi, in the state in the coming month is likely to brighten the chances of  former Karnataka CM BS Yeddyurappa’s return to the BJP. However, the survey also reveals an overall loss of vote share for the Congress and its allies nationally “if the Lok Sabha election is held tomorrow'.

The Telangana Statehood issue dominates the political landscape in Andhra Pradesh and the TRS continues to leverage this sentiment, as seen by its vote share soaring from six to 13%. The survey shows the Congress’s fortunes are dipping significantly, yet the party cannot be written off as there is no viable alternative with a pan-Andhra Pradesh appeal.  Given the varying political dynamics in each region, the TRS, YSR Congress and Congress will be the front-runners in Telangana, Rayalaseema and coastal Andhra respectively, making seat projections a difficult exercise.

In West Bengal, as compared to 2009 the ruling Trinamool Congress will gain one percentage point if elections are held immediately, the Left Front will plummet from 43 to 28% of the vote-share. The BJP, the survey reveals, will double its vote-share to 12% , while the Congress will gain eight percentage points. BJP deputy leader in the Rajya Sabha Ravi Shankar Prasad called the projected doubling of the BJP vote share a “welcome development'.

All is not well for the Janata Dal (United) government in Bihar. The Nitish Kumar government is up against heavy odds, according to the findings. It shows that the State government’s performance and approval ratings have taken a huge hit compared to 2011. Down from 90% to 69% measured for performance and from 87% to 54% measured for approval/popularity. The good news for the Chief Minister is that there seems to be no erosion in the Janata Dal(United)’s vote share post its split with the BJP. If anything the JD(U)’share of votes is shown to be up by a percentage point, which could of course also be due to the JD(U) being able to contest more seats. Cuurently, Nitish tops the list of regional leaders likely to head a third front government.