Congress: Not quite as gloomy as they look

The party has improved its strike rate in terms of number of seats won per seat contested

The Indian National Congress’s humiliating defeat in the recent Assembly elections, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, is symbolic of the party’s present condition. It is going through one of its worst slumps in its post-Independence history, and many digital bytes have suggested a surgical strike on its leadership and a complete overhaul of the party machinery. Data, however, suggest a more nuanced picture. In various Assembly elections since its defeat in the 2014 general elections, the party has actually improved its strike rate in terms of number of seats won per seat contested, although it has contested fewer seats. Not only that, it has also improved its vote share.

Ten states — Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Bihar, Delhi, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam, Uttar Pradesh and Punjab — have had an election since the 2014 general elections, not including the smaller ones such as Goa and Manipur. These 10 states account for nearly 60 per cent (317/543) of all Lok Sabha seats.

During the 2014 general elections, the Congress party effectively contested in 1,544 Assembly segments — parts of Lok Sabha constituencies equivalent to Assembly constituencies — across these 10 states and won a mere 194, a winning percentage of 13 per cent. In subsequent state elections in these 10 states, the Congress party contested in 1,032 Assembly constituencies and won 258, a winning percentage of 25.Simply put, the Congress doubled its win rate between the 2014 general elections and the subsequent state elections.

Source: Analysis and data IndiaSpend and the Election Commission of India