It's BJP all the way in assembly polls: India Today-Org survey

It is good news for the BJP in the assembly elections. The party is set to retain control of Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh and wrest Rajasthan and Delhi from the Congress, the India Today-Org post-poll survey said Wednesday.

The anti-incumbency factor was apparent in Rajasthan, where the Congress' Ashok Gehlot government looks unlikely to retain power, it said.

The Congress is expected to suffer a four percent fall in its vote share from 37 percent in 2008, resulting in a loss of 34 seats to 62 in the 200-member house, the survey said.

The post-poll survey showed the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the clear gainer as it was likely to increase its tally from 78 to 110 with the help of four percent swing of vote share in its favour.

The overall tally of the other parties and Independents was also likely to increase by two seats to 28.

The BJP's Shivraj Singh Chauhan will remain in control of Madhya Pradesh, the survey predicted.

Though the ruling party looks all set to hold it right, the post-poll survey showed it might suffer a loss of five seats as its tally might slip to 138 in the 230-member assembly.

The fall in the BJP's tally was likely despite an increase of three percent in the vote share of the party to 41 percent.

The Congress, on the other hand, was likely to increase its vote share by four percent to 36 percent, leading to a jump of nine seats to 80, still too short to dethrone Chauhan.

In Chattisgarh, the BJP's Raman Singh is all set to return to power, the post-poll survey said.

The survey showed the BJP's vote share would increase from 40 to 42 percent, gaining three seats in the process.

The ruling party is projected to get 53 seats in the 90-member house.

The Congress, on the other hand, might lose five seats to finish with just 33 even as its vote share remains unchanged at 38 percent.

Raman Singh emerged as the clear winner among the chief ministerial candidates of the state with 50 percent of the 3,750 respondents favouring him.

The anti-incumbency factor is clearly working against the Congress in Delhi. Three-time Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit not only seems to be conceding power to main opposition party BJP, but might even lose the election from the New Delhi constituency to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader Arvind Kejriwal, the survey said.

The post-poll survey predicted a clear victory for the BJP, giving it 41 seats in the 70-member assembly, ahead of 20 for the Congress and six to the AAP.

The other parties and Independents' overall tally in Delhi was also likely to fall from four in 2008 to three.