Maharashtra polls acid test for Cong-NCP & Maha Yuti

While the ruling combine faces strong anti-incumbency factor, opposition Shiv Sena-BJP needs to strive to win majority

The elections to the Maharashtra Assembly next month, would be an acid test for both, the incumbent as well as opposition parties.

The polling for 288 seats will take place on October 15 and counting on October 19 as the term of the present Assembly ends on November 8. The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has been ruling the state since 1999. During the 2009 poll, Congress had won 82 seats, NCP 62, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-46, Shiv Sena-44 and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena-13.

It will be an acid test for the ruling Congress-NCP combine to tackle the anti-incumbency wave in the state.

The Congress-NCP government has already held a massive advertisement campaign to market its various flagship programmes and also a slew of decisions to spur growth. Both parties would soon launch their independent media blitzkreig. The government has issued more than 1,200 government resolutions since August 5 to counter criticism that it was facing a “policy paralysis”. However, both the parties would have to struggle to counter allegations with regard to various scams.

As far as Congress is concerned, the party has already clarified that it is not prepared to give an equal share of seats to the NCP despite the latter's warning to go solo. The central leadership of both parties had held talks on August 20 and decided to go together but they are yet to arrive at a consensus on the number of seats. Congress and NCP leaders indicated that the seat-sharing arrangement would be finalised soon.

It would also be an acid test for the BJP and Shiv Sena-led Maha Yuti (grand alliance). The coalition would have to strive to repeat its sterling performance in the Lok Sabha polls when it rode on the Modi wave, in the Assembly election. More importantly, it is also a litmus test for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is with his close confidant and BJP president Amit Shah, wants to once again implement his agenda of a “Congress-free India” during the Maharashtra election.

In case of BJP and Shiv Sena, both are struggling to accomodate their allies including Republican Party of India, Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana, Rashtriya Samaj Party and Shiv Sangram, who have been threatening to leave Maha Yuti unless and until sizeable (and winnable) seats are spared for them.

The BJP and the Shiv Sena have their own issues. The BJP, which won 23 seats and got 28 per cent vote share in the Lok Sabha poll, is not ready to play second fiddle to the Sena. BJP is also insisting on tweaking the 2009 seat sharing formula (169:119) so that it can get 144 seats. However, Shiv Sena is not ready to sacrifice its big brother role and has staked the claim on the chief minister's post. Curiously, there are already five contenders in BJP for the coveted CM's post.

After the recent meeting between BJP chief Amit Shah and Shiv Sena president Uddhav Thackeray, both the parties hinted that a poll alliance would be a mere formality. Other allies in the Maha Yuti have also toned down their demands, indicating that defeating the Congress-NCP combine is the main objective.