Modi magic fading? United Opposition must not ignore BJP's 2 key advantages

After the high of Kairana and Karnataka, ignoring BJP's accrued advantages and Modi's electoral charisma could trip the Opposition -- united or otherwise -- in 2019

A resurgent and united Opposition dealt another blow to the PM Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), defeating it in electorally-crucial Uttar Pradesh's Kairana and Noorpur bypolls, whose results were announced on Thursday. BJP's defeat in Kairana, in particular, was seen as a successful test case for Opposition unity ahead of the 2019 general elections. However, the Congress and other opposition parties must not ignore the advantages the saffron party still enjoys going into the Lok Sabha polls. 

The BJP and its allies could only win three of the 14 seats up for grabs in the recent bypolls. Out of the four Lok Sabha seats in play, BJP won only in Maharashtra's Palghar, while the BJP-NDPP alliance won in Nagaland. The saffron party lost in Kairana and Maharashtra's Bhandara-Gondia. Among the Legislative Assembly seats that saw bypolls, the BJP only won in Uttarakhand's Tharali. The saffron party's ally, the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United), lost Bihar's Jokihat to the Rashtriya Janata Dal.  

The BJP, for its part, has played down the outcome of the bypolls and asserted that the party will win the 2019 elections. The saffron party also has two key things going for it: 

Modi's continued popularity

The party's confidence, in spite of back-to-back losses against a united Opposition, is based on the 'Modi factor' -- which, according to the party, does not plays a major role in bypolls. 

"The BJP has secured unusual and extraordinary mandate in four years of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rule. While Modi continues to swing election after election by his ever-growing popularity... in by-polls, local issues, castes, and candidates take precedence over national leadership," BJP spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP G V L Narasimha Rao said on Thursday.

Further, going by recent surveys, Modi still remains the "most popular leader" in the country, leaving Congress President Rahul Gandhi far behind.  

An online survey conducted by the Times Group recently showed that almost two-thirds (71.9 per cent) of the respondents will vote for Narendra Modi as PM candidate in the next Lok Sabha elections.    

According to another survey, even though Modi's popularity has taken a dip over the years, he still remains the most popular leader in India. The ABP News-CDS survey, held recently, pegged Modi's popularity at 34 per cent and Rahul's popularity at 24 per cent. 

Further, according to a C-Voter survey, published in January this year, sixty-six per cent of the respondents preferred Modi as prime minister, while just 28 per cent of respondents chose Rahul Gandhi as prime minister.  

BJP's war chest dwarfs Congress' funds

Another crucial area where the BJP has the Grand Old Party reportedly beat is its bank balance. At a time when the Congress is facing a financial crisis, 'money-power' could be the other major factor in the general elections.   

According to a recent report, Congress earned one-fourth of the funds that BJP did in the financial year ended March 2017. The BJP declared an income of Rs 10.34 billion during this period, an increase of 81 per cent from a year ago, according to the Association for Democratic Reforms. Congress, in comparison, received Rs 2.25 billion, a drop of 14 per cent from the previous year.  

Sources with knowledge of the matter said the fund crisis has forced Congress leadership to stop sending funds required to run its offices in various states.

The party is now looking at the possibility of crowdsourcing funds to fight the 2019 elections.



Opposition sees formula for victory in 2019 

The Opposition, on the other hand, will look to derive confidence from the bypolls in which they have won despite top BJP and National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leaders campaigning extensively for their candidates.   

The Gorakhpur loss in March this year showed the extent of BJP's vulnerabilities against a joint Opposition. The saffron party lost the Gorakhpur seat, which was Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's bastion, to a Samajwadi Party (SP) - Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) combine even after Adityanath's extensive campaigning ahead of the bypoll.      

BJP's defeat in Kairana at the hands of a joint Opposition is being seen as a repeat of the Gorakhpur and Phulpur bypolls. Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) candidate Tabassum Hasan defeated BJP's Mriganka Singh by over 44,000 votes. Hasan had the support of the SP, BSP, and Congress.   

After the results, BJP's Lok Sabha tally in the state has come down to 68 from 71 in 2014.     

Not only in bypolls, Opposition unity also trumped the BJP in the recently held Karnataka Assembly elections. Though the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it failed to form its government in the state. Instead, Congress formed a post-poll alliance with Janata Dal (Secular) to form a coalition government in the state.      

With agency inputs