On key seats, BJP to wait for JD (U)-RJD to announce candidates

The toughest 57 seats that could decide who gets to rule Bihar in the next five years will go to the polls in the final phase of the five phase elections that the Election Commission announced on Wednesday. The phase wise elections will also be an opportunity for the more organised of the two rival alliances to wait until the last moment before announcing their candidates.

The 57 seats, of a total of 243, are scheduled to go to polls in the final phase on November 5. These seats fall in the Seemanchal and surrounding areas of Bihar, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance suffered its worst defeats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections while it swept the rest of the state riding the Narendra Modi wave.

The BJP, along with its allies Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Loktantrik Samata Party and Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party, lost only nine of Bihar's 40 seats in the Lok Sabha. Six of these nine losses were on the Lok Sabha seats in the Seemanchal region - Supaul, Katihar, Araria, Kishanganj, Purnia and Madhepura. These districts, along with Madhubani, Saharsa and Darbhanga, go to polls on November 5.

The word from the BJP is that on seats where it foresees tough contest the party might wait for its rival alliance - comprising Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and Congress - to announce their list of candidates. This will help the BJP gets its caste equation right and exploit the contradictions within Nitish Kumar's JD(U) and Lalu Prasad's RJD.

In the forthcoming assembly polls, the BJP hopes to consolidate the inroads it made among the youth of the 'other backward caste' votes in the Lok Sabha elections, particularly the Yadav votes. It could field Yadav candidates on seats where the JD (U) puts up non-Yadav OBC candidates. For this, party insiders say, BJP President Amit Shah could wait until the last moment before announcing party candidates.

BJP strategists believe that many of the young voters in Bihar will overcome caste loyalties to vote for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's message of development, and his promise to deliver essential infrastructure to the state as part of his Bihar package. Of the total electorate of 66.82 million, an estimated half of the electorate is below 40 years, 18 million is below 30 while 2.41 million will be first time voters.

Phase five of the polls will be politically crucial but it's the phase two that has the Election Commission anxious. This phase will see only 32 seats, the least among the five phases, to go to polls in naxal affected areas bordering Jharkhand. Constituencies in Jehanabad, Aurangabad, Gaya and Rohtas will poll on October 16. These are also some of the districts that witness low voter turnout compared to rest of the state.