Putative SP-BSP unity will be tested in the next few months

Mayawati's Rajya Sabha term ends in April 2018, and she will need the SP to get re-elected

The recent bonhomie between Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) members in the Rajya Sabha has raised hopes of a united front against the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

But this putative unity of the Uttar Pradesh (UP) archrivals will be tested next year in the Rajya Sabha elections, when BSP chief Mayawati’s term ends, and before that in the by-poll for the Gorakhpur Lok Sabha seat, which has fallen vacant after its sitting member Adityanath Yogi has quit and sworn in as the UP chief minister.

As a rule, the BSP does not contest by-elections. The SP and Congress are likely to field a joint candidate, but it would be interesting to watch if the BSP chief and her party campaign for such a candidate.

It would be the SP’s turn to return the favour by early 2018. Mayawati’s Rajya Sabha term ends in April 2018. The BSP has a mere 19 seats in the UP Assembly. Even if the Congress, with its 7 seats, supports her, the number would be insufficient for her to get re-elected to the Rajya Sabha. She can get elected to the Rajya Sabha only if the SP, with 47 seats in the UP Assembly, asks its legislators to vote for Mayawati.

In the last couple of days, BSP and SP members have together trooped into the well of the House to disrupt proceedings as they protested against the government’s failure to fill vacancies in the statutory bodies, like the Scheduled Caste and OBC commission. The Congress and Janata Dal (United) supported them. 

The SP and BSP have found some of their vote bank shifting to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, and again in the 2017 Assembly polls in UP.

In the UP Assembly polls, the BJP got 39.7 per cent votes, and, together with its smaller allies, a vote share of 42 per cent.

The SP bagged 21.8 per cent and BSP 22.2 per cent, while the Congress received 6.2 per cent. Together, this comes to 50.2 per cent. Such an alliance, or so some in these parties believe, can defeat the Modi-led BJP in 2019.

However, there are others in the Opposition ranks who believe that just the aggregation of votes cannot defeat the BJP, and the need is to build a new narrative on the ground with its basis in people’s movements.