Race for allies in Tamil Nadu

BJP sources deny that Modi had even thought of Tamil Nadu as a state from where he could contest, but ADMK circles are edgy and nervous

Amid chatter in All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam circles that BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi might be considering contesting the Madurai Lok Sabha seat, silent but rapid political moves are on to strike alliances in Tamil Nadu.

BJP sources denied that Modi had even thought of Tamil Nadu as a state from where he could contest. But ADMK circles are edgy and nervous. That the BJP-ADMK tie-up is far from being a done deal, is clear from the angry reaction of the local unit of the BJP that the party could even consider such a move. “A very large number of our workers have been murdered in Tamil Nadu. Those who have been arrested for the murders have nothing to do with it. We believe justice has not been done to us, and the state government is showing no particular alacrity in settling responsibility. So, you could say the local unit is not interested in tying up with Jayalalithaa,” said a senior BJP leader.

However, they added that the matter was out of the hand of the local unit because the stakes were much higher. “The local unit would like an alliance with the Dravida Munnetra kazhagam (DMK). In fact, talks have already taken place. But, Delhi’s compulsions are different,” they said.

It is widely believed that Tamil Nadu with 39 seats will be among the swing states that will make or unmake the possibility of a BJP government at the centre in the 2014 general election. The affection between Atal Bihari Vajpayee and M Karunanidhi, BJP sources said, was based on mutual respect for each others’ mobilisation strategies, and hurdles like the language (one spoke no Hindi  and only Tamil; the other spoke no Tamil and only Hindi) were rendered irrelevant. It was in Tamil Nadu during the Emergency of 1975-76, that a number of leaders from the then Janata Party, including Vajpayee found shelter when the rest of the country was ruled by the Congress and they were in danger of being incarcerated. On the back of this historical association, the DMK is reminding the BJP that it is a more dependable and reliable ally than the ADMK.

However, the context of the general election of 2014 is quite different. “We know we have no significant political assets in Tamil Nadu. But we have something else that is proving to be a bigger leveraging factor – the personality and draw of Narendra Modi. This is creating an asset of its own,” said a Modi follower in the BJP.

Tamil Nadu is governed by the politics of alliance. The most sought after ally is Jayalalithaa, the least wanted is the Congress. It is possible that the BJP stays out of a pre-poll aliance with both DMK and ADMK. But it is conscious that eventually, it will have to decide on a partner. The recent Yercaud bypoll where the ADMK posted a handsome victory suggests it could be Jayalalithaa. But this question is not settled yet as the local unit still has to reconcile to the idea.