RLD's win in UP's Khatauli by-poll worrisome for BJP, say political pundits

A seemingly inconsequential Assembly by-election in the western Uttar Pradesh hinterland has put the simmering agenda of the farmers on the boil again in the predominantly sugarcane-rich region.

Recently, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), an ally of the principal Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP), trounced the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the Khatauli Assembly by-poll in Muzaffarnagar district.

Since the RLD is a self-professed champion of issues related to farmers, agriculture, rural income, and the prosperity of agriculturists, the farm agenda will come into sharp focus ahead of the coming UP urban local body polls as well as the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
 

Springing a surprise, RLD candidate Madan Bhaiya defeated the BJP’s Rajkumari Saini by over 22,000 votes to dislodge the ruling party from the seat.
 

Saini is the wife of former BJP MLA Vikram Singh Saini, whose disqualification from the Assembly after his conviction in a Muzaffarnagar riots case had necessitated the by-election.
 

Nonetheless, the RLD victory has not only boosted the sagging morale of the party workers but come as a shot in the arm for Jayant Chaudhary, president of the party.
 

The Khatauli win signifies a new formula crafted by the RLD by combining different castes and communities as a successful template, which could be replicated in other seats in the coming election.
 

In the 2022 UP Assembly polls, the RLD had won eight of the 33 seats it had contested under a pre-poll alliance with the SP, thus registering a strike rate of 25 per cent as against 32 per cent each of the SP as well as another ally, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP).
 

The SBSP has since left the SP-led tabernacle, and instead has been cosying up to the BJP.

The farm protests, sweeping Western UP in the run-up to the Assembly polls, had subsided after the Centre dropped the contentious farm laws. It helped the BJP retain its support base among the farmers during the elections, and stage a comeback by winning 273 (along with pre-poll allies) of the 403 Assembly seats in the state.

Although the protests have quieted down, the RLD and the Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU) are holding out still, attacking the BJP for “short-changing” the farmers on a plethora of issues including sugarcane price, doubling farm income, and, more recently, the Agneepath scheme for recruitment in the armed forces.
 

However, these issues largely remained on the fringes even as the BJP consolidated its power in UP by winning a number of Lok Sabha by-polls, including Azamgarh and Rampur, apart from the Gola Gokarannath Assembly by-poll in Lakhimpur Kheri district.
 

Nonetheless, in the recent by-poll, while the BJP won the Rampur Assembly constituency, the party nominees lost in the Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat, apart from Khatauli. In Mainpuri, Dimple Yadav, wife of SP President Akhilesh Yadav, won in the traditional seat of party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, who passed away in October.
 

In the emerging scenario, political pundits say the Khatauli defeat is worrisome for the BJP, observing it would be tough for the party to break the new caste tactics of the Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD.
 

Social scientist and commentator A P Tiwari said the RLD victory had given a kind of momentum to Jayant, who will also gain in the complex pre-poll seat-sharing bargaining vis-à-vis the SP.
 

“Emboldened by the success of his well-contrived strategy in terms of pooling in the political clout of Jats, Gujjars, Muslims, and Dalit voters, Jayant will dexterously consolidate this formula. The alliance with the SP and Azad Samaj Party will strengthen the political calculus in favour of the RLD,” he noted.
 

Besides, the spectre of future farm protests looms for the BJP. This may only add to the party’s cup of woes, compelling it to 

plausibly give impetus to its time-tested Hindutva strategy.

The RLD is likely to forge an understanding with the BKU to make fresh inroads into the farming community. In fact, it is ready to up the ante and mobilise farmers by holding a series of meetings and village-level “chaupals”.
 

RLD National Secretary and Spokesperson Anil Dubey told Business Standard the party had consistently been highlighting the farmers’ issues and exposing the “blatant lies and false promises” of the BJP government.
 

“Jayant Chaudhary led from the front when the Centre had announced the farm laws. He toured villages and addressed rallies, which forced the government to roll them back,” he claimed.
 

Dubey further said the RLD had been vigorously cornering the BJP over Agneepath and promises on doubling farm income and providing farmers returns 1.5 times their agricultural costs. “All this effectively turned the tide in favour of the RLD during the by-polls and the BJP was defeated.”
 

Meanwhile, the BJP has apparently started reworking its farm strategy. Recently, a delegation of the BKU (apolitical) met UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath in Lucknow to demand an early announcement of the UP sugarcane price and settling arrears.

The sugarcane value chain, comprising sugar, ethanol, and other by-products, touches the lives of nearly 5 million farm households in UP and accounts for an annual economy of almost Rs 50,000 crore. The BJP is expected to counter 

the RLD move by sweetening the farm-related promises.