Will Yashwant Sinha repeat the post emergency story of 1977 polls in 2019?

He could play a key role in shaping alliances, galvanising BJP's disgruntled flock and build a narrative against the Modi govt in Bihar and Jharkhand

Will Yashwant Sinha’s revolt against Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) prove to be as portentous as that of Jagjivan Ram, Nandini Satpathy and Hemavati Nanda Bahuguna from Indira Gandhi-led Congress party immediately after the Emergency was lifted and elections announced in January 1977?

How effective will Sinha, and his newly floated Rashtra Manch, or National Forum, prove in galvanizing those within the BJP to rebel against Modi and Shah? Would it replicate the success of the Jan Morcha that VP Singh, and his associates, had floated in 1987 when they rebelled against then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi?

Could Sinha have taken the step without consulting BJP seniors LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi?

We shall know the answers to these questions in the months to come.

On November 10, 2015, Sinha and senior leaders Advani, Joshi and Shanta Kumar had publicly criticised BJP chief Shah. But that stinging letter, a critique of Shah’s increasing sway over the party, had come in the immediate aftermath of the BJP losing the Bihar assembly polls.

Much has happened since, including Shah consolidating his position by delivering successive electoral victories. If Sinha’s revolt at the end of 2015 couldn’t spark a conflagration, would he succeed now?

As apparent from Modi’s London interaction with the Indian diaspora last week, the party, candidates and cadres would be incidental to the BJP’s efforts at re-election in 2019. The BJP will largely contest the election on Modi’s appeal, and Shah’s strategy.

The opposition will need to ensure, at least in key north Indian states, and as the CPI(M) has suggested, maximum pooling of anti-BJP votes.

It is here that Sinha could prove to be a catalyst. Sinha has taken ‘sanyas’ from electoral politics. He is widely respected as an elder statesman and could broker peace between opposition leaders to facilitate a repeat of the 1977 and 1989 experiments.

On both occasions, the opposition had successfully united against the all-powerful Congress party by ensuring one-on-one contests in the majority of the Lok Sabha seats. In 1977, the experiment was in the shape of one party, the Janata Party. In 1989, opposition parties had worked out seat adjustments.

Sinha quit the civil service and joined the Chandra Shekhar-led Janata Party in 1984. He has been a leading Bihar and Jharkhand politician for over three decades, representing the Hazaribagh constituency thrice. In 2014, he didn’t contest, vacating the seat for his son Jayant Sinha.

Sinha knows the socialists of the 'Janata Parivar' well – both those who are currently allied with the BJP, as well the ones opposed to it. This is where Sinha’s role could be crucial.

If the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party have already announced an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, the contours of an opposition alliance in Bihar and Jharkhand remain uncertain.

Bihar (40) and Jharkhand (14) send 54-seats to the Lok Sabha. In 2014, the BJP and its allies had won 43 of these 54-seats. Janata Dal (United), which had then contested the polls separately and won two seats in Bihar, is now a BJP ally.

There are efforts to put together a broad alliance against the BJP in both Bihar and Jharkhand. Negotiations are afoot to have Congress, Jharkand Mukti Morcha (JMM), Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and Rashtirya Janata Dal (RJD) have seat adjustments in Jharkhand to ensure non-BJP votes is not split.

In Bihar, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustan Awam Morcha have a ‘grand alliance’. But opposition is keen that Upendra Kushwaha-led Rashtriya Lok Samata Party leaves the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance and contests with the ‘grand alliance’.

Sinha can not only play the role of the elder statesmen in shaping these alliances but would be an asset in building a narrative against the Modi government in the two states.

The Rashtra Manch has unveiled a seven-point programme. It has announced its commitment to protecting and safeguarding institutions of democracy and protecting the interests of farmers, youth, marginalized communities and weaker sections and security of women.