CAI revises downwards cotton estimates by 24.5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales in Apr

Cotton Association of India on Monday revised its estimate of cotton crop for the season 2019-20 to 330 lakh bales - 24.5 lakh bales lower than its previous forecast, as most ginning mills were shut following nationwide lockdown to curb COVID-19 and lack of labour.

The association had earlier projected cotton production at 354.50 lakh bales for 2019-20.

Cotton crop for 2018-19, beginning from October 1, was 312.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs each, CAI said in a statement.

Cotton arrivals have declined due to decline in ginning as mills were shut following the nationwide lockdown, which also drove most labour force going back to their villages, CAI president Atul Ganatra said.

Total cotton supply estimated by CAI during October 2019 to April 2020 is 329.59 lakh bales, which consists of the arrivals of 285.09 lakh bales, imports of 12.50 lakh bales up to April 30 and the opening stock of 32 lakh bales at the beginning of the season.

Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2019 to April 2020 at 160 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton estimated up to April 30 at 32.50 lakh bales.

Stock at the end of April is estimated by the CAI at 137.09 lakh bales, including 25 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 112.09 lakh bales with Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) and others (MNCs, traders, ginners etc).

Crop Committee of the association has estimated total cotton supply till end of the cotton season, up to September 30, at 377 lakh bales against 411.50 lakh bales estimated in the previous month.

CAI estimated the imports at 15 lakh bales this year, lower by 17 lakh bales compared to the previous year's estimate of 32 lakh bales.

Cotton imports estimated lower due to the 10 per cent depreciation of the rupee, which has made imported cotton costly, while Indian cotton has become very cheap and easily available in quantity, CAI added.

Meanwhile, domestic consumption is also estimated to decline by 51 lakh bales for the entire crop year at 280 lakh bales, as against 331 lakh bales forecast earlier on account of disruptions caused by COVID-19 crisis.

However, CAI has estimated exports for the season to grow by 5 lakh bales at 47 lakh bales against 42 lakh bales projected earlier. This export estimate is higher by 5 lakh bales than estimated in the previous year due to favourable prices.

The carryover stock estimated at 50 lakh bales against 38.50 lakh bales estimated earlier.