Copper prices may fall below USD 7,000/tonne on oversupply

Owing to excess supply of copper and uncertainties over economic recovery, prices of the red metal are expected to be under pressure and fall below USD 7,000 per tonne this year, a survey said.
Copper prices continued to exhibit a downside bias in 2013 mainly due to a sharp acceleration in global mine supply and uncertainties over the global economic recovery.
"More recently, concerns over underlying Chinese demand and the sustainability of the copper financing trade have imparted further downward pressure, with copper crashing to a near-four year low in mid-March 2014," according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The survey pointed out that the decline will be for the first time since 2009.

The copper market was in a largely balanced position in 2013, despite global mine production rising by 8 per cent, its fastest pace in over a decade.
The report said robust demand growth, a tight scrap market and delays in processing concentrate into refined metal limited the size of the market oversupply.

"Whilst many commodities markets have been on the back foot of late, the copper market has been particularly susceptible to weakness given its heightened exposure to the Chinese market, through both traditional end-use demand as well as finance-related routes," the report said.
It forecasts copper prices to trade within a broad range of USD 6,000-7,000 per tonne for much of the remainder of 2014.

"With the risks to the copper market skewed to the downside, against a backdrop of rising mine supply and modest market surpluses, prices are likely to remain subdued over the rest of this year," it said.
The report noted that copper market is now in the midst of a period of strong supply growth, as miners begin to deliver on investments made during the boom years.
According to the survey, global mine production grew by 8 per cent last year to 17.8 million tonnes, with Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo making standout contributions.
"In fact, mine production increased across all regions, boosted by higher productivity at major mines, ramp-ups and commissioning of new projects and expansions. Looking ahead, mine output is set for a period of above trend growth that will lead the copper market into surplus over the medium term," the report added.

The report however observed it should be acknowledged that rising capital costs, easing prices and a shift in mindset amongst mining companies towards one of constraint could lay the foundations for renewed tightness later in the decade.