COVID-19 may kill 45,000 in South Africa: Expert warns govt

The coronavirus is expected to come in waves over the next two to three years, killing up to 45,000 South Africans, according to an expert on a panel of leading medical professionals advising President Cyril Ramaphosa.

The coronavirus has infected more than 3,000 people and killed over 55 in South Africa which is currently under a 35-day national lockdown to contain its spread.

We will not be returning to normal for the next two to three years, said Professor Shabir Madhi of Wits University, who heads the public health subcommittee advising Ramaphosa and his Cabinet.

This is not a short-term crisis that is going to be sorted out in the next few months. We might see a huge upsurge in cases and at least three to four epidemics over the next few years, he said.

Madhi is a professor of vaccinology at the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) and a director of the South African Medical Research Council Respiratory and Meningeal Pathogens Research Unit.

He is part of a team of 128 scientists from around the world tasked with finding a vaccine for the virus that has infected nearly two million people across the globe.

Madhi said in a webinar on Tuesday that while this was still a staggering figure, it was a huge jump down from the initial projected deaths of between 120,000 and 50,000, which was based on a model from the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic in China, where it originated.

Subsequent studies in the US, China and Iceland have shown that at least 50 per cent of infected people are asymptomatic, which Madhi said "changes the numbers completely.

(This has) huge implications in terms of quantifying the number of infections, the expert said, adding that it also has implications for the extended 35-day national lockdown which is now in its 27th day.

We can't go into perpetual periods of lockdown (but) the reality is that this is going to cause many epidemics for at least next two to three years, the professor said.

Madhi said the worst months would be the usually harsh winter from May to August, but less people were expected to get severe forms of COVID-19, with herd immunity' also starting to set in.

He cautioned that this should not result in steps taken during the current lockdown being disregarded if it was ended.

The bad news is that we don't know who is spreading it, he said, advising people to maintain social distancing.

Madhi said mass gatherings, such as those at religious institutions and sporting events, would not be back for a long time.

He also advised those at higher risks, such as elderly and those with chronic ailments, to remain in voluntary self-isolation during this period.