Economic Survey's GDP growth forecast for FY20 wide off projection

The GDP growth projection made in Economic Survey 2018-19 was wide off the mark, as the expansion is estimated at only 5 per cent during the current fiscal as against 7 per cent projected earlier.

It is for the second consecutive time that NSO's GDP estimate is significantly lower than the projection made in the survey prepared by the finance ministry.

As per the National Statistical Office (NSO), economic growth is estimated to touch an 11-year low of 5 per cent during 2019-20, mainly due to slowdown in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The Economic Survey 2018-19, which was tabled in Parliament in July 2019, had projected growth at 7 per cent for the current fiscal ending March 2020.

The Economic Survey 2017-18 had estimated growth for 2018-19 at 7-7.5 per cent. The GDP growth, as per the latest NSO data, has been revised downwards to 6.1 per cent from the earlier estimate of 6.8 per cent.

The survey for 2017-18 had projected a GDP expansion in the range of 6.75-7.5 per cent. The actual number turned out to be 7 per cent, well within the range.

However, during 2016-17 the growth was 8.2 per cent as against the survey's projection of 7-7.5 per cent.

The latest Economic Survey 2019-20 prepared by a team lead by Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian, which was tabled in Parliament on Friday, said India's economic growth will start picking up and clock 6-6.5 per cent in the next fiscal year starting April 2020.