GDP Growth

India's GDP growth may slip to around 6 per cent and retail inflation could rise to RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent in the current fiscal, if the Indian crude basket price averages USD 120 a barrel, EY India said on Wednesday. EY India Chief Policy Advisor DK Srivastava said, although room for policy interventions is limited, policymakers need to consider upward revision in the repo rate and accelerated diversification of sources of crude supply as the price of the Indian crude basket (ICB) may rise further if the West Asian crisis persists. "If the ICB price averages USD 120 per barrel in FY27, India's real GDP growth may slip to about 6 per cent and CPI inflation may increase to 6 per cent... To minimise the adverse impact on fiscal deficit, increased energy prices should be passed on to the retailers to a relatively larger extent," Srivastava said. The April 2026 release of the US Energy Information Administration EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude oil ..

Domestic consumption is sustaining the growth momentum in the economy, and predictable policy support is essential to ensure that the pace of GDP expansion continues, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday. Speaking at an event organised by SBI here, Sitharaman also said that a committee of bankers is looking into the issue of whether to allow exclusive distribution tie-ups for selling third-party products by banks or adopt an open architecture approach. She also urged banks to focus on the physical contact with customers as they go global and digital. The minister further said that the disinvestment process of IDBI Bank will continue going ahead. "...consumption emerging out of its domestic market itself is able to sustain our growth, which is the fastest even now in the world," she said. The finance minister said that while it is necessary for the consumption for the growth process to continue, it is also pertinent to have predictable policies. "...unless our

India can sustain economic growth despite crude prices in the $90-100 per barrel range, supported by strong consumption, infrastructure spending and macroeconomic resilience

ESCAP report cites geopolitical tensions, inflation pressures and weak global demand as key risks, while projecting India's GDP growth at 6.4 per cent in 2026

India slipped to sixth in IMF GDP rankings due to rupee depreciation and base revision, even as the economy continued strong growth and is expected to regain position soon

IMF has raised India's FY27 growth forecast to 6.5 per cent, saying lower US tariffs could offset the impact of West Asia tensions even as global growth and trade outlook weaken

Limited fiscal room and weak household finances may keep real GDP growth subdued

Multilateral lender predicts economic growth to rebound to 7.3% in FY28 driven by EU trade pact and a rise in government staff's income

World Bank upgrades India's FY27 growth outlook to 6.6% on strong domestic demand, but flags inflation risks and slowdown due to West Asia conflict

Projects inflation to rise to 4.6% in FY27 from 2.1% in FY26, GDP growth to slow to 6.9% from 7.6%

On the growth side, the RBI has maintained a positive outlook, projecting gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.9 per cent for FY27

Moody's Ratings has slashed India's economic growth estimates for the current fiscal to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent earlier, saying the ongoing conflict in West Asia will moderate growth momentum and raise inflation risks. In its credit opinion report on India, Moody's said prolonged disruptions, particularly LPG shipments due to the conflict, would lead to near-term household shortages, higher fuel and transport costs, and spillovers to food inflation through India's reliance on imported fertilisers. The region accounts for around 55 per cent of crude oil imports and over 90 per cent of liquified petroleum gas (LPG) supplies to India. "While inflation remains contained for now, geopolitical risks have tilted the inflation outlook to the upside," Moody's said while projecting inflation to average 4.8 per cent in FY27, up from 2.4 per cent in FY26. With inflation risks re-emerging and growth remaining robust, policy rates are likely to be held steady or raised gradually in fiscal .

As Bangladesh marks its 56th Independence Day, slowing growth, rising inflation and a widening trade deficit underscore mounting economic challenges

S&P Global Ratings on Wednesday raised India's GDP growth forecast for the next fiscal to 7.1 per cent, with private consumption, investment and exports being key drivers, but said that the conflict in the Middle East could strain the fiscal position due to higher energy prices arising from the conflict. In its latest quarterly Asia-Pacific economic commentary, S&P Global Ratings said risks from renewed geopolitical tensions and persistent trade-related uncertainties could affect India through fluctuations in commodity prices, trade volumes, and capital flows. It expects fuel prices in India to rise if oil prices remain elevated, to contain subsidy costs, but does not foresee a full pass-through. "We project real GDP growth to moderate to 7.1 per cent in the fiscal year ending in March 2027, compared with 7.6 per cent in fiscal 2026. Key drivers are resilient private consumption, a modest recovery in private investment, and solid exports," it said. The 2025-26 growth has been .

The fresh cut in growth estimate by Goldman's analysts follows a change in their assumptions on oil prices and the period of disruption to supplies

Growth across sectors remains balanced, with services projected to grow at 8.6 per cent, the primary sector at 8.4 per cent, and the secondary sector at 7.7 per cent

India is set to release a new GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year. But what exactly is GDP, how is it calculated, and why do revisions matter?

India’s economy expanded 7.8% in the October–December quarter of FY26, according to newly released national accounts data based on a revised GDP series with 2022–23 as the base year.

Rising crude prices and trade disruptions from the West Asia war are prompting economists to trim India's growth forecasts, threatening the economy's recent "sweet spot"

Fitch Ratings on Friday raised India's GDP growth forecast for current fiscal and the next to 7.5 per cent and 6.7 per cent, and projected global crude oil price to average USD 70/barrel in 2026. Fitch had, in December, projected India's GDP growth for current fiscal at 7.4 per cent and 6.4 per cent for 2026-27. Fitch expects growth to slow in first half of FY27, with rising inflation constraining real incomes and limiting consumer spending growth. GDP growth slowed in the December quarter to 7.8 per cent YoY from 8.4 per cent in September quarter. "We estimate that for 2025-26 financial year (starting April 2025), growth will be 7.5 per cent, a marginal upward revision from December. Domestic demand is the biggest growth driver this year, with consumer spending and investment rising by (an estimated) 8.6 per cent and 6.9 per cent in the current fiscal year," Fitch said. In its Global Economic Outlook- March 2026, Fitch projected world GDP growth at 2.6 per cent in 2026 on the ...