GDP Growth

Lower nominal GDP estimates have nudged up FY26 fiscal deficit and debt ratios, implying a steeper consolidation path even as new NSO GDP data revises sectoral weights

Overall, the 2022-23 base revision represents a substantive statistical reset

What is GDP, how is it calculated, and why do estimates matter? A simple guide to GDP, GSDP, nominal vs real growth and India's new base year

India will shift GDP base year to FY23 and adopt price deflators and double deflation to improve accuracy, reflect structural shifts, and align national accounts with global standards

EAC-PM chief Mahendra Dev says India must raise investment, expand labour-intensive manufacturing, upgrade health and education and deepen state-level reforms to reach developed-economy status by 2047

As India shifts its GDP base year to 2022-23, economists are divided on whether the unrevised WPI base will distort real growth estimates, even as CPI has been updated to 2024

Economists expect Q3 GDP growth to remain above 7 per cent, supported by a pickup in consumption and investment

India's revised GDP series will introduce major changes in inflation adjustment for consumption, investment and trade, shifting toward granular deflators and global SNA standards to reduce volatility

Panel report released by the National Statistics Office signals shift to more granular expenditure tracking

Finance minister says Budget aims to strengthen domestic capabilities, citing strong growth and low inflation as a "Goldilocks moment" for the economy

Economists polled by Reuters, as well as the Bank of England, had forecast 0.2 per cent fourth-quarter growth compared with the previous three months

Moody's Ratings on Monday projected India's GDP to grow at 6.4 per cent in the next fiscal, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption, policy measures, and a stable banking system. In its banking system outlook report, Moody's said their asset quality will remain resilient, with some stress among micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Regardless, banks have sufficient reserves to absorb loan losses, it said. The operating environment for banks will remain strong in 2026, supported by robust macroeconomic conditions and structural reforms, it said. "We forecast India's real GDP will grow 6.4 per cent for fiscal 2026-27, the fastest pace among G-20 economies, driven by strong domestic consumption and policy measures. "The rationalization of the goods and services tax (GST) in September 2025 and an earlier increase in personal income tax thresholds will help improve affordability for consumers and support consumption-led growth," Moody's said.

The RBI's MPC held rates steady, citing improved growth and benign inflation, while announcing regulatory steps to boost credit flow and strengthen digital payment safety

Inflation risks may prove to be broader than what that explanation implies

Economists say the India-US trade deal could lift FY27 GDP growth by 20-40 basis points by boosting exports and reducing uncertainty, though risks from imports remain

For the private sector, the real story lies in the de-risking of the Indian investment landscape

The proposals announced on Sunday imply a dual approach: A strategic arc that will continue to pave the path for faster potential growth, and a tactical arc of facilitations and reliefs

From a capital markets perspective, the Budget's proposals to deepen the corporate bond market clearly stand out

Experts say announcements focus on sustenance of growth, resilience

FM Sitharaman tightens fiscal deficit target at 4.3% of GDP