IMF cuts Saudi growth forecast on oil slide

Growth in OPEC heavyweight Saudi Arabia will slow to its lowest rate in seven years, the International Monetary Fund said today, as oil prices continue their dramatic fall.
Revising down its last forecast, the IMF predicted that the Saudi economy will grow by just 1.2 per cent in 2016 - compared with the 2.2 per cent it estimated in October.
This would be the worst growth rate for Saudi Arabia since 2009, when the economy contracted by 2.1 per cent because of the sharp fall in crude prices due to the global financial crisis.
In its World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF also projected growth in 2017 to be a modest 1.9 per cent, down one percentage point from its October forecast.

Saudi's economy, heavily dependent on oil revenues, grew by 3.4 per cent last year, the IMF said.
The new downgrade comes after Saudi Arabia posted a record budget deficit of USD 98 billion (90 billion euros) last year and projected an USD 87 billion shortfall for the current year.

The action also comes after the kingdom took unprecedented measures to reduce huge subsidies on fuel products, electricity, water and other services in a bid to boost non-oil revenues and rationalise consumption.
"Lower oil prices strain the fiscal positions of fuel exporters and weigh on their growth prospects," the IMF said.

It said the economy of the whole Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, which includes oil importers and exporters, is forecast to post higher growth this year and the next but at a slower rate due to conflicts and low oil exports.
The region is forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent this year and the next, down 0.3 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, on October projections.
The region grew 2.8 per cent in 2014 and 2.5 per cent last year.
"Higher growth is projected for the Middle East, but lower oil prices, and in some cases geopolitical tensions and domestic strife, continue to weigh on the outlook," the Fund said.

To finance the deficit, Saudi Arabia withdrew around USD 100 billion from its fiscal reserves in the first 11 months of last year. The kingdom also issued debt worth around USD 30 billion.
Riyadh still has reserves of around USD 630 billion.
Oil prices have crashed from around USD 115 a barrel in June 2014 to under USD 30 a barrel this week.
The IMF said the price of oil averaged USD 51 a barrel last year and is projected to be USD 42 a barrel this year and USD 48 a barrel in 2017.