Immediate spike likely in inter-city mobility after train, bus services resume operations: Study

An immediate spike in inter-city travel is expected within two weeks of resumption of train and bus services as many people, who are stuck in different cities, will look for an opportunity to return to their bases, according to a survey by IntrCity RailYatri.

However, the inter-city mobility industry in India, which was in an expansion mode, has been slowed down by the coronavirus pandemic, according to the survey by the multi-modal intercity mobility platform, covering more than 20,000 users across metros, tier-1 and tier-2 cities.

Interestingly, 38.41 per cent of travellers indicated that they would consider travelling this year if the pandemic has been effectively controlled.

Leisure travel would take the biggest hit with a sharp drop of 71 per cent in planned holidays and festive travel. Only 29 per cent of the respondents plan to travel this year for social or festive occasions.

"An immediate spike is expected in inter-city mobility in the immediate 0-2 weeks period once trains and inter-city buses start to operate. People are looking for an opportunity to return to their base," the survey said.

A high (30 per cent) number of travellers are stuck in the wrong city as the lockdown took many Indians by surprise, it added.

According to the survey, social distancing will drive near total shift from offline to online bookings.

"Despite strong and persistent efforts by online brands, offline bookings have historically dominated in India. This finally looks set to change and is a big opportunity for online brands," it said, adding the biggest impact would be on bus bookings, specifically on 'last-minute' sales by agents and touts at popular boarding-points.

When it comes to preferred mode of travel, tourists are unlikely to change their choice in the post-COVID-19 era.

"Upon asking which mode of transport best addresses 'Social Distancing' most travellers prefer to stick to their original preference of bus or train. However, this "bias" is significantly more pronounced in bus and train travellers, as compared to flight travellers," it said.

Flight travellers are the most pessimistic in comparison to those by train and bus. Domestic flyers constitute the most nervous cohort, followed by train and bus, it added.

"Over 50 per cent of travellers who prefer travelling by sleeper bus or train are far more confident about travelling within the next three months. Therefore, train and bus travellers displayed a far greater sense of optimism as regards to resuming their inter-city travel," the survey added.

Despite India experiencing one of the most severe lockdowns in the world, the overall travel sentiment is biased towards optimism of things becoming normal again, it added.

However, the inter-city mobility industry in India will require to put in place innovations, diversification and safety measures to meet with challenges.

"How soon we will recover from the crisis will depend upon the extent of 'safe zone travel' and 'safe destinations' and the ability to transform and innovate within the industry and adjust to travellers 'new' expectations," it said.