India, France to lead study on polar region-monsoon link

India and France will lead a major international effort to study the impact of climatic changes in polar regions on the Indian monsoon, which has become a subject of intense debate over the years, a top Government official said today.
"Recent findings say polar regions have a major impact on our monsoon on decadal scale. A major international effort, led by India and France, is being launched...We are discussing it. In October, it will be taken forward," said Shailesh Nayak, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences here.
"Basically, we understand the melting that occurs in the Arctic can dramatically change atmosphere circulation, motion circulation and bring many other changes. Now how these changes are going to affect our monsoon...That is the study which we want to take it up on an international level," he told reporters on the sidelines of an event.

"In October we will take a decision on that and in December or in January next year we are going to make an announcement in this regard. Through this forum, whichever country participates they will spend their own money. Our estimate is USD 3 million for us. Right now eight countries have shown interest," Nayak explained.
Responding to a query on El-Nino, a weather condition that generally leads to weak monsoon in India, he said "There is no direct impact...We have been maintaining from beginning that as per our estimates the El-Nino, if it is to happen, is likely to happen in the end of the year (during December)."

Earlier, speaking at the inauguration of a two-day l workshop on 'Science of Climate Change: Indian Ocean and Monsoon' at Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), Nayak said the last as well the current decades have witnessed unprecedented weather extremes.
"Most scientists agree that the high incidence of weather extremes is not accidental. We had five cyclones and extremely heavy rainfall in Uttarakhand and Gujarat.
"We need to improve our knowledge by increasing our efforts for understanding of basic physics, and employing statistical analysis and computer simulations of extreme events. We have launched a major project on 'extreme weather' to address such issues," he said.