India to grow at 7.8% in 2015-16, surpass China: Fitch

India is expected to grow at 7.8 per cent in current fiscal 2015-16, surpassing China's growth rate, and further accelerate to 8 per cent and 8.1 per cent in subsequent years, global rating agency Fitch said today.
Among the BRICS grouping, GDP growth will range from 7.8 per cent in India to a contraction of 3 per cent in Russia and 1.5 per cent in Brazil this year, said the Global Economic Outlook released by the Fitch Ratings.
As regards China, the report said the growth rate "is in a gradual structural slowdown and our unchanged growth forecast is 6.8 per cent in 2015, 6.5 per cent in 2016 and 6 per cent in 2017".

"India's GDP growth will surpass China's this year for the first time since 1999, and accelerate to 8 per cent in 2016 and 8.1 per cent in 2017. Recovery from the recession in Russia and Brazil will be weak, with growth rates of only 1.5 per cent by 2017," the report said.
The global economy, it said, was expected to grow by 2.4 per cent in 2015, followed by 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 2.8 per cent in 2017.
The pick-up in 2016, it added, "reflects a recovery from recession in Brazil and Russia, albeit a weak one; while the structural slowdown in China is weighing on global growth potential."

As regards the major advanced economies, Fitch said the growth rate was likely to improve from an expected 1.8 per cent in 2015 to 2 per cent in 2016 and 1.8 per cent in 2017.

However, it added, that the Greek crisis poses a risk to economic recovery.
"Our baseline forecast is for eurozone GDP growth to strengthen from 0.9 per cent in 2014 to around 1.6 per cent in 2015-2017, but the risk of a Greece exit from the eurozone has intensified following the breakdown in talks between Greece and its creditors and the announcement of a referendum on the bailout proposals, to be held on July 5," the report said.

It added that this "poses a risk to economic recovery. A weaker exchange rate, low oil prices, strengthening confidence, quantitative easing and improved credit conditions support growth".